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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

Updated

A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

From our Newsroom:

Russia Kills Suspected Militant, Claims Election-Day Attack Thwarted

Russian law enforcement authorities say they have killed a suspected Islamic militant who they suggested may have been plotting an attack on the day of the presidential election next month.

In a statement on February 1, the Federal Security Service (FSB) said officers killed the man when he put up armed resistance as they attempted to arrest him in the Volga River city of Nizhny Novgorod.

The suspect was from an unnamed former Soviet republic other than Russia and was a member of the militant group Islamic State (IS), it said, without providing evidence.

It said the suspect "was prepared to carry out" a terrorist attack on March 18, the day of an election that seems certain to hand President Vladimir Putin a new six-year term.

A search turned up a powerful homemade bomb, components for more explosive devices, guns, and ammunition, it said.

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The Power Vertical's Brian Whitmore speculated in his Morning Vertical on February 1 on the Kremlin's strategy with respect to opposition leader, and barred would-be presidential candidate, Aleksei Navalny:

Vladimir Putin's regime sure is expending a lot of energy on someone it claims not to be worried about....

In his remarks about Navalny, [Putin spokesman Dmitry] Peskov said: "I don't think anybody can doubt that Putin is the absolute leader of public opinion, the absolute leader of the political Olympus...with whom it is unlikely that anyone can seriously compete with at this stage."

Certainly not in the stage-managed event scheduled for March 18 that the Kremlin calls an election. The result of the vote is a foregone conclusion.

But the Kremlin appears spooked by Navalny's ability to spoil the big show and to troll the regime's legitimization ritual.

And in the bigger picture, in the Russia beyond March 18, the Kremlin is clearly worried about Navalny despite Peskov's protestations to the contrary.

There are now 8 candidates left in the running

The deadline for candidates to submit signatures of support to the Central Election Commission passed on January 31.

Six of them did so, including Putin, Sobchak, Yavlinsky, Suraikin, Titov, Baburin. The Central Election Commission now has 10 days to verify signatures. Two other candidates backed by parliamentary parties automatically passed this stage.

So the candidates still standing are:

Vladimir Putin

Sergei Baburin of the Russian All-People Union

Ksenia Sobchak, a TV personality

Maksim Suraikin of the Communists Of Russia party

Boris Titov, business ombudsman

Grigory Yavlinsky, Yeltsin-era liberal founder of Yabloko

Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia

Pavel Grudinin of the Communist Party

Cadre Rotations Ahead Of Elections?

Carnegie Moscow Center's Tatiana Stanovaya looks at the personnel changes that are in the works for after the election and what they portend for the system.

Will Yavlinsky get a Kremlin job after elections?

Ekho Moskvy is reporting that Grigory Yavlinsky might replace Vladislav Surkov as the Kremlin point man on Ukraine (!?!)

If Yavlinsky doesn't win the election, of course! :-)

Less than two months ahead of the election, a Moscow court convicts one of the highest-ranking officials to be arrested in office since Putin was first elected president in 2000.

Russian Ex-Governor Given Eight Years In High-Profile Bribery Case

A Moscow court has sentenced former Kirov Oblast Governor Nikita Belykh to eight years in prison following his conviction on bribery charges.

The court on February 1 also ordered Belykh to pay a 48.5 million ruble ($866,000) fine in the high-profile case. Belykh was also barred from holding public office for an additional three years.

Full story here.

Peskov promises to be more careful after election chief's criticism

President Putin's spokesman has promised to watch his words after Russia's elections chief, Ella Pamfilova, criticized him for "clear signs of campaigning" in his earlier comments about his boss, RBK reports.

Dmitry Peskov on January 29 said Putin "is the absolute leader of public opinion, the absolute leader of the political Olympus...with whom it is unlikely that anyone can seriously compete with at this stage."

Under Russian law, public servants are not allowed to use their position to promote a particular candidate.

The independent Russian election monitor Golos has collected scores of reports of state-controlled media and institutions effectively campaigning for Putin ahead of the March 18 presidential election he's expected to win in a landslide.

Eyes Out For Suspicious Turnout

Opposition leader Navalny, barred from running due to a criminal conviction he and his supporters call fabricated, has launched an election-monitoring initiative for the presidential poll.

In a February 2 post on his website, Navalny called for volunteers to sign up as observers, with a focus on regions that traditionally report suspiciously high voter turnout.

Here's an RFE/RL infographic offering some insight into what Russians expected coming into this election year.

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