Polls have closed in Iran, where voters cast ballots on June 28 in an early presidential election triggered by the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash at a time of growing frustration among many over a lack of freedoms, declining living standards, and a faltering economy.
All four names on the ballot have been vetted and approved by the Guardians Council, an unelected constitutional watchdog whose members are directly and indirectly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
No candidate is expected to secure enough votes on June 28 to be declared the outright winner in the tightly controlled contest.
A candidate needs to win at least 50 percent of the votes to win the race. A potential runoff has been scheduled for July 5.
The election appears to be a three-way race between conservative parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, and reformist lawmaker Masud Pezeshkian.
Last-ditch efforts by conservatives to rally behind a consensus candidate failed on the eve of the election, with neither Qalibaf nor Jalili willing to drop out in favor of the other.
Conservatives have expressed concern that the lack of unity could split the vote, benefiting the lone reformist hopeful Pezeshkian.
Qalibaf is a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Air Force and is the longest-serving mayor of Tehran.
He is a traditional conservative who is running for president for the fourth time in the past 20 years. Qalibaf has faced many corruption allegations throughout his career, though none has dented his relationship with Khamenei.
Jalili serves as Khamenei’s personal representative on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). He was the SNSC’s secretary between 2007 and 2013, during which time he led the Iranian delegation in failed talks with the West on Tehran’s nuclear program.
SEE ALSO: Iran's 'Highly Engineered' Race For Presidency Dominated By Hard-LinersJalili represents the hard-line sect of the conservative camp and has never held elected office.
Pezeshkian has been a member of parliament since 2008 and served as deputy speaker between 2016 and 2020, when moderates and reformists had a majority in the legislature.
He has questioned Iran’s methods of enforcing the hijab, the Islamic head scarf for women, and spoken in favor of negotiating with the West.
But he also supports the principles of the Islamic republic and says he will follow Khamenei’s policies if elected.
Iranians Go To The Polls To Replace President Killed In Helicopter Crash
The outcome of the election is unlikely to result in major policy shifts, but it could have an impact on the succession to the 85-year-old Khamenei, who has been Iran’s supreme leader since 1989.
Opinion polls project a slightly higher voter participation than in the last presidential election in 2021, which saw a record-low turnout of just under 49 percent. Critics say the real number was likely even lower.
France-based political commentator Mojtaba Najafi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that because disillusioned voters were unlikely to show up en masse to vote, Pezeshkian was unlikely to capitalize on the conservative split to win the election in the first round.
He added, however, that Pezeshkian had a good chance of making it to the second round to face one of the two conservative candidates.
The political establishment has long maintained it derives its legitimacy from strong voter turnout, but poor participation in recent elections and deadly protests against the Islamic republic have challenged the legitimacy of the current leadership.
Radio Farda listeners on June 28 explained why they had chosen to vote or opted against it.
One woman said taking part in a “rubber-stamp election” where “our votes do not have the slightest impact” would only serve to legitimize the political establishment.
“The president does not have the power needed to implement the changes that people want,” another listener said.
One voter said she went to the ballot box to vote for Pezeshkian mostly out of fear that a hard-liner like Jalili would become president.
Another person acknowledged that while past votes had failed to result in significant change, he still held out hope that “a more moderate government will allow society to become stronger.”
Voting is also taking place amid the backdrop of a war between Israel and Tehran-backed Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, in the Gaza Strip, and global pressure over advances made in Iran's nuclear power program.
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Khamenei has been calling on eligible voters, which number at just over 61.4 million people, to show up in droves to project an image of “a strong Iran.”
“The Islamic republic’s durability, strength, dignity, and reputation depend on the presence of people,” Khamenei told reporters after casting his ballot on June 28.
Dissidents at home and abroad have called for a boycott, arguing that voting in past elections has failed to deliver change.
In Iran, the supreme leader has the final say on all state matters and the president does not have much sway on many key issues.
Raisi, who many Iranians refer to as the "Butcher of Tehran" for his alleged role in the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988 when he was Tehran's deputy prosecutor, died along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and several other officials when their helicopter crashed on May 19.