Iran
- By RFE/RL
Israel Marks Anniversary Of Hamas Attack As War Rages On In Lebanon And Gaza
Israel on October 7 marked the somber anniversary of the Hamas attack on the Jewish state that killed more than 1,200 people and took some 250 hostages as the Israeli military continued its massive air strikes on Beirut and its incursion in southern Lebanon that aims to destroy the Iran-allied Hezbollah militant group.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog led a national moment of silence at 6:29 a.m., the time the attack started, at Kibbutz Reim, the site of the Nova music festival where hundreds of mostly young revelers were killed by gunmen from Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by both the United States and the European Union.
The Israeli military said that during the ceremony led by Herzog, four projectiles were launched from Gaza toward the same Israeli communities targeted at the start of last year's attack. The military said the ceremony was not disrupted.
In Jerusalem, relatives of the some 100 hostages still in Hamas captivity, many of whom are believed dead, gathered outside the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and stood in silence as a siren wailed in a gesture of protest against what relatives say is the failure of the government to secure their loved ones' release.
Following the October 7 attack, Israel launched a military assault on Gaza that has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which is run by Hamas.
The Israeli military said on October 7 that over the past year, it has bombed more than 40,000 targets in Gaza, found 4,700 tunnel shafts and destroyed 1,000 rocket launcher sites.
The conflict in Gaza is still raging while Israel is now fighting on a second front in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Early on October 7, Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, fired rockets into the north Israeli cities of Haifa and Tiberias, causing damage and some minor injuries, Israeli police said.
The European Union has blacklisted Hezbollah's armed wing but not its political unit, which holds seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Israel in recent weeks has been bombing Beirut's southern suburbs and has staged a ground incursion into south Lebanon in its drive to wipe out Hezbollah's capabilities and leadership.
The Israeli campaign on Hezbollah prompted the group's patron, Iran, to respond by attacking the Jewish state with a large wave of rockets that were largely shot down by Israeli air defenses without causing substantial damage, but the attack renewed fears of a a larger regional conflict.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on October 6 threatened Iran that it might eventually find itself looking like Beirut or Gaza -- which has also been battered over the past year -- if Tehran attempts to further harm Israel.
"The Iranians did not touch the air force's capabilities. No aircraft were damaged, no squadron was taken out of order," Gallant said in reference to the Iranian missile strike, which caused few injuries and slight damage to two air force bases.
"Whoever thinks that a mere attempt to harm us will deter us from taking action should take a look at [Israel’s operations] in Gaza and Beirut."
Israel earlier said it conducted a series of "targeted strikes" on "weapons storage facilities" and infrastructure sites that belong to Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Lebanon's official National News Agency said Hezbollah's stronghold in the area was hit by more than 30 strikes. A petrol station and a medical supplies warehouse were hit by the air raids.
Video footage showed huge flames and plumes of smoke billowing into the night sky as residents fled their homes in panic with explosions echoing in the background.
Many observers said the attacks were the strongest yet of Israel's recent air strikes.
Israel has bombed Beirut's suburbs for days, killing Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and possibly his potential successor, Hashem Safieddine.
Security sources have said Safieddine had been out of contact since October 4 after an Israeli air strike near Beirut's international airport that was reported to have targeted him. Hezbollah has not commented on Safieddine.
Israel says Nasrallah was killed in a strike on the group's central command headquarters in Beirut on September 27.
Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters on October 6 that Ismail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force -- the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- also had not been heard from in recent days since traveling to Lebanon.
Statements on October 6 out of the United States -- Tel Aviv's most important ally -- indicated some frustrations with the scope of Israel's military action.
"Military pressure can at times enable diplomacy. Of course, military pressure can also lead to miscalculation. It can lead to unintended consequences," a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in a statement.
The spokesperson said Washington supported Israeli actions in going after extremist elements but added that U.S. leaders but did not approve of the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
Israel says the attacks on Hezbollah are aimed at enabling the safe return of tens of thousands of citizens to homes in northern Israel, bombarded by the group since last October.
- By RFE/RL
Israel's Devastating War In Gaza In Numbers
One year ago, Israel launched one of the deadliest and most destructive bombing campaigns in modern history in the Gaza Strip.
It came just hours after Hamas -- the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that controls Gaza -- carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel, the deadliest in the country’s history.
Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas has taken a huge toll on civilians and infrastructure in the Palestinian enclave, one of most densely populated areas in the world.
Deaths
On October 7, Hamas launched an hourslong multipronged attack on Israel from Gaza. Israel said 1,139 people were killed, including 685 Israeli civilians and 71 foreigners.
Hamas also took 251 Israelis hostages. Nearly half of them have been released, with some rescued and others freed by Hamas. Just over 100 of the hostages are still believed to be in Gaza, while the rest are believed to be dead. Some were inadvertently killed in Israeli strikes.
Israel has said 346 of its soldiers have been killed in the ground invasion of Gaza, which came weeks after the launch of its aerial bombardment of the enclave.
Over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.
Most were believed to be civilians, and a significant number of them children, who account for almost half of Gaza’s population of 2 million people.
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk said in April that “every 10 minutes, a child is killed or wounded” in Gaza. Children, he said, are “disproportionately paying the ultimate price in this war.”
The real death toll is believed to be even higher. Over 10,000 people are believed to be still buried under the rubble of residential buildings in Gaza, according to the UN.
Over 700 Palestinians, including more than 150 children, have been killed in the occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.
Israeli forces have been accused of unlawfully using lethal force in fatal shootings of Palestinians, including deliberately executing Palestinians who posed no apparent security threat.
Israel also estimates that 17,000 Hamas fighters have been killed in Gaza, a figure rejected by Hamas.
Destruction Of Infrastructure
Israel has destroyed over half of all the structures in Gaza Strip, according to the UN. Another 360,000 residential units have been damaged.
Satellite imagery shows that at least 53 schools have been destroyed since the conflict began, the world body said.
Israel said that it has targeted “terror” infrastructure and buildings in Gaza, and accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields.
War Injuries
Israel’s ground and air attacks on Gaza has wounded over 95,000 Palestinians, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
At least one-quarter of them face life-changing injuries, with many requiring amputations and major rehabilitation, said WHO.
Media And Relief Workers Killed
At least 116 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza, Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).
At least five reporters were directly targeted by Israeli forces in what the New York-based media watchdog classified as murders.
That has made Israel’s war in Gaza the deadliest-ever conflict for journalists.
Relief workers have also been killed while working in the field. According to the UN, more than 250 aid workers have lost their lives during the conflict.
Humanitarian Crisis In Gaza
Nearly the entire population of the Gaza Strip is facing starvation due to an extreme lack of food, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
Israel has used the starvation of Palestinian civilians as a weapon of warfare in the Gaza Strip, which is a war crime, Human Rights Watch said In December.
Internally Displaced Palestinians
More than 85 percent of Gaza’s residents, or over 1.9 million people, were internally displaced in the enclave by the end of 2023, the UN estimates.
Interview: Israel 'Very Polarized' One Year After October 7 Attack
One year ago, Hamas -- the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip -- carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel, the deadliest in the country’s history.
In response, Israel launched an aerial bombardment and ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave to destroy Hamas and rescue the 251 hostages taken by the group.
Israel has expanded its war in recent weeks by invading Lebanon and launching air strikes targeting Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
RFE/RL spoke to Lior Yohanani, manager of quantitative research at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based independent research center, which on October 7 released a wide-ranging survey of Israeli public opinion after one year of war.
RFE/RL: Can you explain what your study found as to how Israelis view the past year since Hamas's October 7 attack?
Lior Yohanani: Well, I think Israelis still don't see October 7 as an event that's over. Sure, the actual horrific events of that day ended, but Israelis are still living with the consequences.
There are two main aspects to this. First, since October 7, Israel has been in this multifront war that doesn't seem to have an end in sight. And then, of course, there is the issue of the hostages still being held in Gaza. So, we're seeing a sharp drop in people's sense of personal security. Almost three quarters of the public feel less safe compared to before October 7, and that's despite a year of war and some significant military achievements. On the flip side, we're also seeing that most people say their lives have returned to normal when it comes to things like work, media consumption, and family and social gatherings.
Another thing we're noticing is that the Israeli public is giving pretty low marks to all the political and military leaders for the performance since October 7. For example, almost two-thirds of Israelis are rating Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu's performance since then as poor or not good.
RFE/RL: How has Israel's involvement in a two-front conflict, in both Gaza and Lebanon, as well as a confrontation with Iran affected public opinion among Israelis?
Yohanani: It's tough to answer that question, because we're at the point where things could go in a few different directions. In the last few weeks, we've seen a major escalation in the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and just last week, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, which Israel is expected to respond to. In a survey we just did recently, we asked whether Israeli society and the military could handle fighting on two or more fronts for an extended period of time, and the results were pretty striking. Over 70 percent believe that yes, both Israeli society and the military can handle that kind of prolonged fighting. So, while the situation is complex and evolving, there seems to be a strong sense of resilience and capability among Israelis, even in the face of these multiple threats. But of course, public opinion could shift depending on how events unfold in the coming weeks or months.
RFE/RL: Is there support for Netanyahu’s response to October 7? Is there debate in Israeli society, as well as political circles, over Netanyahu’s strategic choices?
Yohanani: First of all, it's important to say that the Israeli public has largely supported significant military operation against Hamas in Gaza. That said, the Israeli discourse around the October 7 events, the ongoing war, and especially toward Prime Minister Netanyahu, is very polarized between right-wing supporters on the one hand and left and center supporters on the other.
People are hoping for a future where Israel can exist without constant threats, rather than expecting a harmonious relationship with its neighbors in the near-term."
So, on the left and the center, there is a high level of distrust and suspicion toward Netanyahu and his government. For instance, Netanyahu's apparent reluctance to pursue a deal for returning the hostages in exchange for ending the fighting in Gaza is seen by large parts of the public, even on the right, as resulting from Netanyahu's dependence on far-right, ultranationalist members of his government who refuse any compromise or ceasefire.
Now for a long time, Netanyahu and his ministers argued that only significant military force would lead Hamas to compromise and release the hostages. Now, with military attention and resources shifting to the north, people are asking, where is this massive military force that was supposed to bring the hostages home?
One question we have asked several times since October 7 in our polls is what should be the main goal in Gaza: Dismantling Hamas or bringing back the hostages? And as time goes on, public opinion is increasingly supporting the return of hostages. In our current survey, 62 percent saw bringing the bringing back the hostages as Israel's main goal, while only 29 percent pointed to dismantling Hamas as the primary objective.
RFE/RL: How do ordinary Israelis see the question of the remaining hostages amid the continued protests by the hostages' families?
Yohanani: As I mentioned before, most of the public supports a deal to release the hostages, even if it means ending the war and withdrawing the military forces from Gaza. There's this widespread feeling that we've left the hostages behind, and that's really hitting at our sense of solidarity, which is a deep and fundamental value, I think, in Jewish history in general and in Israel society in particular.
At the same time, the campaign run by the Hostages And Missing Families Forum has become very politicized. Many right-wing supporters see it as weakening Israel. As time goes on, we're seeing more and more harassment of protesters who support bringing the hostages back. There are cases of passersby cursing, even hitting and throwing eggs, at hostages' families. In our latest survey, we asked about the effectiveness of the protests and actions taken by the hostages' families.
Despite most of the public feeling empathetic toward the hostage issue, only less than a third think these actions are actually helping to advance a deal for the hostages' release, while almost 40 percent think they're actually hurting the cause. So, you've got this complex situation where people want the hostages back, but there is disagreement and some backlash about how to make that happen.
RFE/RL: Can you explain the reasons behind the apparent contradiction in views regarding prioritizing a negotiated return of the hostages, or destroying Hamas?
Yohanani: You're right to point out that apparent contradiction. Let me break it down a bit. As I mentioned earlier, a clear majority of the public sees a deal to release the hostages as the main goal. But there is a big gap between political camps on this issue. In the center and left, about 80 percent support the deal for the hostages' release, while the opinions on the right are evenly split. So, for most of the left and center, the fighting in Gaza has run its course. They feel most military objectives have been achieved, and Hamas's military power has been significantly weakened. From their perspective, continuing the fight now only puts the hostages at greater risk.
It's important to know that about half of the right-wing also shares this view of prioritizing the hostages' release, but the other half of those on the far-right thinks dismantling Hamas is more important.
Why? For a couple of reasons.
First, there's a security stance that Hamas must be wiped out and not allowed to recover. There is also a very strong sentiment of revenge, with minimal consideration for the cost, whether it's the lives of the hostages, soldiers, let alone innocent civilians in Gaza. Another significant component openly discussed in religious nationalist circles is the return of Jewish settlement to the Gaza Strip after Israel evacuated Jewish settlements from there in 2005.
RFE/RL: Is there public confidence that Israel will ultimately be able to remove the threat of Hamas and Hezbollah and come out of this conflict with greater prospects for a peaceful and stable near-term future?
Yohanani: Right now, the Israeli public isn't showing a lot of optimism. In our current survey, when we asked people if they're optimistic or pessimistic about Israel's future, we found more pessimists, 48 percent, than optimists, 45 percent.
I also think it's important to note that a peaceful future, as you put it, or peace in general, isn't really a common concept in the current Israeli discourse. I would say the hope of Israelis is that the military actions against Hezbollah and Iran will lead to a situation where Israel's existence isn't in question, and that Israeli military superiority will prevent events like October 7 from happening again. So, it's less about peace in the traditional sense, and more about security and deterrence. People are hoping for a future where Israel can exist without constant threats, rather than expecting a harmonious relationship with its neighbors in the near-term.
- By RFE/RL
Hamas's October 7 Attack On Israel Compromised Iran, Proxy Network
Iran has spent decades methodically assembling its "axis of resistance," a loose network of armed proxies and allies against Israel.
The network is key to Iran's attempts to sustain military pressure on Israel and to deter its archenemy from directly attacking the Islamic republic.
But on October 7, a key member of the axis launched a deadly cross-border assault on Israel, compromising the axis and leaving Iran exposed to a possible direct war with Israel.
Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip, killed nearly 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, and took 251 hostages in its multipronged attack.
One year on from the unprecedented attack, Israel has weakened key members of the axis and left Iran ever-closer to the all-out war with Israel it sought to avoid.
Broken Axis?
Hamas has been pounded by Israel's retaliatory aerial bombardment and ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Israel's war in Gaza has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Israel has said most of those killed were combatants, and estimates it has slain around 17,000 Hamas fighters, a figure rejected by the Palestinian group.
In July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group and political party, has fired thousands of rockets on Israel in the past year in solidarity with Palestinians.
The Shi'ite organization, the most powerful member of the axis of resistance, is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Hezbollah has suffered major blowback in recent months. Israeli attacks have decimated its leadership, degraded its fighting capabilities, and compromised its communications.
On October 1, Israeli troops invaded southern Lebanon, opening a second front in its war against the axis of resistance.
Some 2,000 kilometers to the south, Yemen's Huthi rebels have also been targeted. The Huthis began launching advanced missiles and drones at Israel soon after the October 7, 2023, attack and targeted international maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen. The actions landed the Huthis back on the U.S. terror list in January. In late September, waves of Israeli air strikes hit Huthi targets in Yemen.
Pro-Iranian militias and members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also been hit hard by Israeli strikes in Iraq and Syria.
Missile Deterrence Targeted
Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said that by taking on Iranian proxies Israel has undermined a major component of Tehran's national-security doctrine.
"Iran has seen that one of the parties, the main proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, is reduced to almost nothing," Alfoneh said, adding that it has greatly limited "what Hezbollah can do for Iran in the short term."
On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever missile attack against Israel in what was seen as retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah days earlier.
Alfoneh suggested Iran's attack may have been fueled by concerns that Israel had targeted Hezbollah's missile arsenals that "potentially can deter Israel from targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure."
"If those missiles are no longer there, things look very bleak for Iran," Alfoneh said, adding Iran may have struck Israel in the hope that it could "divert Israeli attention away from Lebanon."
'Down But Not Out'
Other experts, however, were skeptical of the overall effect of Israel's bombardments against the axis of resistance.
"Hezbollah has definitely taken a hit, but the euphoria that swept Israel and parts of Washington appears premature and exaggerated," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. "The axis may have been down but [is] far from out."
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said Hamas, Iran-backed militias in Syria, and to some extent Hezbollah has been weakened in terms of weaponry and human resources.
But he said that did not apply to the axis of resistance overall. In the case of Hezbollah, Azizi said the group has significant manpower totaling around 100,000 fighters. And Hezbollah, he said, has only sparingly used its most powerful ballistic missiles against Israel.
The Huthis, meanwhile, have already unleashed highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.
The biggest impact, he said, had been on the axis of resistance's command and coordination structure, largely due to Israel's assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, "who was in charge of coordinating all these groups," including training and recruitment efforts.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Intensifies Attacks Near Beirut As October 7 Anniversary Looms
Israel stepped up its massive air strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs in its drive to wipe out Hezbollah's capabilities and leadership, even as the world awaits with trepidation the October 7 anniversary of the bloody attack on Israel by Hamas -- which, like Hezbollah, is a U.S.-designated terror group with ties to Iran.
Meanwhile, Tehran said it had lifted “all flight restrictions” after earlier announcing it was closing Iranian airports as of 9 p.m. on October 6 until 6 a.m. on October 7, citing "operational restrictions," at a time when Israel is weighing options for its response to Iran's recent massive missile strike on its territory.
State media said the restrictions were lifted “after ensuring favorable and safe conditions.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on October 6 threatened Iran that it might eventually find itself looking like Beirut or Gaza -- which has also been battered over the past year -- if Tehran attempts to further harm Israel.
"The Iranians did not touch the air force's capabilities. No aircraft were damaged, no squadron was taken out of order," Gallant said in reference to the Iranian missile strike, which caused few injuries and slight damage to two air force bases.
"Whoever thinks that a mere attempt to harm us will deter us from taking action should take a look at [Israel’s operations] in Gaza and Beirut,” where Israel is battling fighters of Hamas, which has been deemed a terrorist organization by the United States and EU.
Israel earlier said conducted a series of “targeted strikes” on “weapons storage facilities” and infrastructure sites that belong to Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has been designated by the United States as a terror group, while the European Union has blacklisted its armed wing but not its political unit, which holds seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Lebanon's official National News Agency said Hezbollah's stronghold in the area was hit by more than 30 strikes. A petrol station and a medical supplies warehouse were hit by the air raids.
Video footage showed huge flames and plumes of smoke billowing into the night sky, as residents fled their homes in panic with explosions echoing in the background.
Many observers said the attacks were the strongest yet of Israel's recent air strikes.
"Last night was the most violence of all the previous nights," Hanan Abdullah, a resident of the Burj al-Barajneh area in Beirut's southern suburbs, told Reuters.
"Buildings were shaking around us and at first I thought it was an earthquake. There were dozens of strikes -- we couldn't count them all -- and the sounds were deafening,"
Israel has bombed Beirut suburbs for days, killing Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and possibly his potential successor, Hashem Safieddine.
Security sources have said Safieddine had been out of contact since October 4, after an Israeli air strike near Beirut’s international airport that was reported to have targeted him. Hezbollah has not commented on Safieddine.
Israel says Nasrallah was killed in a strike on the group's central command headquarters in Beirut on September 27.
Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters on October 6 that Ismail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force -- the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- also had not been heard from in recent days since traveling to Lebanon.
Senior Hezbollah member Mahmoud Qmati, when asked about Qaani's whereabouts, told Reuters: "I have no information. We are also searching for the truth of this matter.
Statements on October 6 out of the United States -- Tel Aviv's most important ally -- indicated some frustrations with the scope of Israel's military action.
"Military pressure can at times enable diplomacy. Of course, military pressure can also lead to miscalculation. It can lead to unintended consequences," a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in statement.
The spokesperson said Washington supported Israeli actions in going after extremist elements but added that U.S. leaders but did not approve of the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
"Every civilian casualty is one too many," the spokesperson said.
Israel said on October 5 that its forces had killed 440 Hezbollah fighters in ground operations in southern Lebanon and destroyed 2,000 Hezbollah targets. Nine Israeli soldiers had been killed in southern Lebanon so far, the authorities said.
According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, nearly 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon in the latest conflict, most of them since September 23.
Israel says the attacks on Hezbollah are aimed at enabling the safe return of tens of thousands of citizens to homes in northern Israel, bombarded by the group since last October.
The Israeli forces were on high alert ahead of the first anniversary of an attack on October 7 last year, which sparked the war and was carried out by Hamas.
According to Israel tallies, some 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage in the unprecedented Hamas attack on southern Israel.
Israeli police on October 6 said several people had been injured in a suspected shooting attack in Beersheba, a city in southern Israel. One attacker was killed, the ambulance service said.
Separately, health officials in Hamas-run Gaza reported on October 6 that at least 41,870 Palestinians have been killed in the territory in the yearlong war between Israel and Palestinian militants.
Palestinian officials said that an Israeli strike on a mosque in Gaza early on October 6 killed at least 19 people who were sheltering after being displaced from their homes near the town of Deir al-Bala.
The Israeli military said the strike was targeting militants. The reports could not immediately be confirmed, but the Associated Press said one of its journalists counted the bodies at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital morgue.
AP also reported that hospital records showed that the fatalities from the mosque strike were all men.
Israel said its forces on October 6 surrounded the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza in response to indications that Hamas was rebuilding “its operational capabilities in the area.”
Israel is also considering a retaliatory strike on Iran, which fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1.
Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad visited Kharg island on October 6, amid concerns that Israel could target Iran's largest oil terminal there.
"The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] Navy plays an important role in the security of oil and gas facilities," Paknejad was quoted as saying at the facility, from which around 90 percent of Iranian oil exports are shipped.
In Syria, state media and local rights monitors said an Israeli air strike targeted three cars in the city of Homs, although details remained sketchy.
Israeli forces have for years been striking Iran-linked targets in Syria and have intensified such actions since the October 7 attacks.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP
- By RFE/RL
Israel Hits Hamas Leaders In Lebanon As World Awaits Potential 'Significant' Strike On Iran
As the world awaits a potentially “significant” Israeli strike against Iran, fighting continued in and around Beirut and throughout Lebanon, with Tehran-backed militant groups acknowledging the deaths of additional leaders from the latest attacks.
An Israeli official told the French news agency AFP on October 5 that the military was "preparing a response" to the massive Iranian missile barrage that struck Israel earlier this week, although most projectiles were shot down and caused few injuries and little property damage.
"The IDF is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the military official told AFP, referring to the Israeli Defense Forces.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the official did not elaborate on the specifics or timing of any potential action.
The Israeli Haaretz newspaper, citing unnamed military officials, said the response would be "significant."
Meanwhile, Israeli forces targeted several sites late on October 5 and early on October 6 in the suburbs of Beirut after warning people to evacuate five specific buildings.
"For your safety and that of your family members, you must immediately evacuate the designated buildings and those adjacent to them and move away from them at least 500 meters," spokesman Avichay Adraee said.
Earlier, Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU, said an Israeli strike killed one of its commanders in a refugee camp in northern Lebanon on October 5.
"Commander" Saeed Attallah Ali, his wife, and two daughters were killed in a "Zionist bombardment of his house in the Beddawi camp" near the northern city of Tripoli, Hamas said.
It is the first reported occasion that the area has been hit as part of the latest military activity, which began with the militant group’s mass assault into Israel on October 7, 2023. More than 1,200 people were killed and some 250 taken hostage in Hamas's rampage, prompting Israel’s brutal retaliation against the militants in Gaza.
The Israeli military reported on October 5 that Muhammad Hussein Ali al-Mahmoud, who it said was Hamas’s executive authority in Lebanon, was also killed in an air strike.
Over the past several days, Israeli forces have pounded areas near Beirut and southern Lebanon as they targeted Hezbollah strongholds, killing dozens of the militant group’s leaders, including chief Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.
Hezbollah has also been designated by the United States as a terror group, while the European Union has blacklisted its armed wing but not its political unit, which holds seats in the Lebanese parliament. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are considered to be Iranian proxies in the region.
The whereabouts of Nasrallah's likely successor, Hashem Safieddine, who is a cousin of the slain leader, remained unknown on October 5 following the latest Israeli air strike that targeted a meeting of Hezbollah leaders on October 4.
As fears of an all-our war in the Middle East grow, French President Emmanuel Macron on October 5 urged a halt of arms deliveries to Israel, which has faced criticism and street protests abroad over the magnitude of its retaliatory actions in Gaza, which reportedly have killed more than 42,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands.
"I think that today, the priority is that we return to a political solution, that we stop delivering weapons to fight in Gaza," Macron told French TV. He added that France was not sending weapons to Israel at this time.
He also assailed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his decision to launch the ground operations inside Lebanon despite pleas from Washington and Paris to avoid doing so.
"I regret that Prime Minister Netanyahu has made another choice," Macron said.
Netanyahu lambasted the French leader for urging a halt to arms supplies to Israel.
"As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran, all civilized countries should be standing firmly by Israel's side. Yet, President Macron and other Western leaders are now calling for arms embargoes against Israel. Shame on them," Netanyahu said.
Israel has claimed the operation in Gaza was necessary to wipe out Hamas militants and to protect its security following the October 7 terror attacks.
On October 4, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei used a rare public sermon to defend his country’s October 1 missile attack against Israel, saying it was "legitimate and legal" and that "if needed," Tehran will do it again, prompting fears of further Israeli retaliation.
U.S. President Joe Biden on October 4 said there had been no decision yet on what type of response Israel should mount against Iran but advised against striking Iran's oil facilities.
"If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," Biden said in the White House briefing room a day after saying such strikes were being discussed.
Biden also told reporters that Netanyahu should remember U.S. support for Israel when deciding on next steps. He added that he had been trying to rally the world to avoid all-out war in the Middle East.
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
- By Frud Bezhan
Who Is Hashem Safieddine, The Senior Hezbollah Leader?
Hashem Safieddine is a cousin and potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader assassinated by Israel.
Safieddine, a senior figure inside Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, was reportedly targeted by Israeli air strikes in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, late on October 3. It was not clear if he had been killed.
A Shi’ite cleric with close ties to Iran, Safieddine joined Hezbollah soon after the group was formed in the 1980s.
Safieddine is widely tipped to succeed Nasrallah, the charismatic and longtime leader of the organization who was killed in Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27.
Safieddine heads Hezbollah’s executive branch, which oversees the group's political affairs. He is also a member of the decision-making Shura Council as well as the Jihad Council, which runs the group's military operations.
The United States designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by Washington, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
The bearded and bespectacled Safieddine wears a black turban, like Nasrallah, which denotes descent from Prophet Muhammad.
"As Nasrallah's cousin and longtime presumed successor, he would likely be able to unify Hezbollah ranks around him," said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"But he lacks Nasrallah's charisma, and he inherits an organization that is a shadow of its former self," added Levitt, the author of Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God.
Israel's killing of Nasrallah was the biggest blow to Hezbollah in its 42-year history. The Shi'ite organization has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated many members of Hezbollah's leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
In his over 30 years in charge of Hezbollah, Nasrallah forged a close relationship with Shi'a-majority Iran, Hezbollah's key backer. With significant financial and political assistance from Tehran, Nasrallah built Hezbollah into a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon and a major player in the region.
Safieddine, born in southern Lebanon, also has close ties to the Islamic republic. He studied in the holy Shi'ite city of Qom, in central Iran. Safieddine's brother, meanwhile, is Hezbollah's representative to Iran.
Safieddine's son is married to the daughter of Qassem Soleimani, the top Iranian commander who was assassinated in a U.S. air strike in Iraq in 2020.
U.S. Advises Israel Against Hitting Iranian Oil Fields
U.S. President Joe Biden said on October 4 there had been no decision yet on what type of response Israel should mount against Iran but advised against striking Iran's oil facilities.
"If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," Biden said in a rare appearance in the White House briefing room a day after saying such strikes were being discussed.
Biden added that the Israelis "have not concluded how they're -- what they're going to do" in retaliation for a massive ballistic-missile attack by Iran on Israel on October 1.
Biden also told reporters that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should remember U.S. support for Israel when deciding on next steps. He added that he had been trying to rally the world to avoid all-out war in the Middle East.
Earlier on October 4, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei used a rare public sermon to defend Iran's missile attack against Israel earlier this week, saying it was "legitimate and legal" and that "if needed," Tehran will do it again.
Speaking in both Persian and Arabic during Friday Prayers in central Tehran, Khamenei said Iran and the regional proxies it supports won't back down from Israel as fears of a wider regional conflict grow amid a wave of multiple massive air strikes and a land incursion by Israel into Lebanon.
Iran will not "procrastinate nor act hastily to carry out its duty" in confronting Israel, Khamenei said.
Khamenei's address came hours after huge explosions shot balls of flame high into the sky as Israeli air strikes rocked the suburbs of Beirut, with large blasts just outside Beirut's international airport, which borders Dahieh -- a stronghold in the capital of Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
The Israeli military did not comment on the target of the strikes, but some media and analysts speculated that the location, size, and scope indicated that it could be Hashem Safieddine, who is widely considered the front-runner to take over the leadership of Hezbollah. It was not immediately clear whether Safieddine was killed in the strikes.
The group's previous leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed last week in Israeli air strikes on a command center for Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Iran's massive ballistic-missile attack was the largest so far against Israel and came in retaliation for the campaign started by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah, prompting the U.S. and Israeli warnings of countermeasures.
Khamenei's October 4 appearance was the first time in almost five years that he had delivered a public sermon. The last time he led Friday Prayers was in January 2020 following an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. military base in Iraq in response to the killing of Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. strike in Baghdad.
Mojata Najafi, a Paris-based analyst of Iranian affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda by phone that Khamenei's speech "didn't say anything new" and appeared to be "aimed at lifting the morale of his followers" and "to dispel the fear about a potential act of terror by Israel."
"Even his comments about the Islamic republic not hesitating [to retaliate] while also not rushing is not new. This has been the policy of the Islamic republic in this current crisis from the start, [Tehran] has attempted to avoid falling into an all-out war."
The latest Israeli strike early on October 4 cut off a road near the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria that has been the escape route for hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians fleeing the conflict in recent days, according to Lebanese Transport Minister Ali Hamieh.
An Israeli strike on an apartment building in downtown Beirut on October 3 killed nine people in what was the first attack on the center of the Lebanese capital since 2006.
Israel said its air strike on Beirut was a precise operation, while a security source said that the target was an apartment building in the capital's central district of Bachoura, near the Lebanese parliament.
A Hezbollah-linked civil-defense group said seven of its members, including two medics, had been killed in the Beirut attack.
In a separate development, the Palestinian Health Ministry said that at least 18 Palestinians were killed in an Israeli strike on the Tulkarm refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on October 3.
The Israeli military said in a statement that the strike killed the head of Hamas's network in Tulkarm, identifying him as Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, who it accused of participating in numerous attacks.
Hamas's armed wing late on October 4 confirmed the death of the commander in an Israeli strike.
Hamas has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union.
It's attack on Israel on October 7 last year sparked the current wave of fighting. Hamas fighters crossed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people. They also took some 240 people hostage with them as they returned to Gaza.
Israel Presses Ahead With Lebanon Incursion After Strikes On Beirut Kill 9
Israel's incursion into south Lebanon continued on October 3 hours after a strike on an apartment building in downtown Beirut killed 9 people while a separate action in the West Bank eliminated a Palestinian militant who was once involved in the lynchings of Israeli reservists.
The Israeli Army also urged the immediate evacuation of more than 20 towns in south Lebanon including the provincial capital, Nabatieh, a move that apparently indicates the Israeli operation against Hezbollah is about to be expanded.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
The Lebanese Health Ministry said the strike on Beirut killed 9 people, in what was the first attack on the center of the Lebanese capital since 2006 as Iran's military warned it would launch broader strikes if the Jewish state responds to its October 1 missile attack.
Israel said its air strike on Beirut was a precise operation, while a security source said the target was an apartment building in the capital's central district of Bachoura near the Lebanese parliament.
A Hezbollah-linked civil defense group said seven of its members, including two medics, had been killed in the Beirut attack.
A separate missile attack on a building in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil killed 15 Hezbollah members, while another strike targeted the southern suburb of Dahiyeh, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed last week, according to Lebanese security officials.
Hamas media and medics, meanwhile, said Israel has killed Abdel-Aziz Salha, a West Bank militant from the U.S. and EU terrorist-designated group who had once been jailed for life for taking part in the lynching of two Israeli reservists in Ramallah in 2000 but was later deported to Gaza in a prisoner swap.
Also on October 3, Israel's military announced that it had "eliminated" Rawhi Mushtaha, the head of the Hamas government in Gaza, along with senior security officials Sameh al-Siraj and Sami Oudeh in strikes three months ago.
Earlier, an Israeli strike on Syria's capital, Damascus, killed four people, including Hassan Jaafar al-Qasir, Nasrallah's son-in-law, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor.
The latest Israeli strikes came a day after Israel reported that eight of its soldiers were killed during its incursion in south Lebanon -- the deadliest day for the Israeli military since launching the cross-border raid this week.
The Lebanese Army reported on October 3 that two of its soldiers were killed over the past 24 hours by Israeli fire, while Health Minister Firass Abiad said that a total of 1,974 people have been killed, including 127 children, and 9,384 wounded since the start of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon over the past year.
Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the German and Austrian ambassadors on October 3 after their governments rebuked Tehran over its missile attack on Israel, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.
The move came in response to "unacceptable measures" by Germany and Austria in summoning Iran's envoys over the October 1 attack.
Tehran launched a massive ballistic-missile attack on Israel on October 1, its largest so far, in retaliation for the campaign started by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah, prompting warnings of countermeasures from Israel and its main ally, the United States.
Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, though some landed in central and southern Israel.
On October 2, Iran's military chief, Major General Mohammad Bagheri said the missile attack launched by Tehran had been limited to military targets, but claimed that in case of an Israeli response, larger Iranian strikes would follow.
"If the Zionist regime is not controlled and takes action against Iran, we will target all of its infrastructure," he said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said in a message on X that the attack targeted "solely military and security sites" involved in what he said was the Israeli "genocide in Gaza and Lebanon" and was conducted by Iran in "self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter."
Bagheri's statement came after Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian also warned Israel against retaliating and promised a strong response.
"We are not looking for war. It is Israel that forces us to react," Pezeshkian said after arriving in Qatar for a summit with Asian countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he would strike back at Iran following the October 1 missile attack as fears grow of a full-blown regional war, while Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, told CNN that the response to the Iranian attack will be "very strong, painful," and will come "soon.”
There has been speculation that Israeli might attack sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program, but U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support that.
Biden's comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven (G7) leaders spoke by phone on October 2 to discuss coordinating new sanctions against Iran.
The G7 leaders "unequivocally condemned Iran's attack against Israel" and Biden reiterated the United States' "full solidarity and support to Israel and its people," a White House statement said.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on October 3 thrashed the G7 statement, saying that the West's condemnation of its attack on Israel was "biased and irresponsible."
- By dpa
Iran Summons German Ambassador Over Remarks About Attack On Israel
Iran summoned the German ambassador on October 3 over differences concerning the situation in the Middle East, the Iranian state news agency IRNA reported. Alongside German Ambassador Markus Potzel, the head of Austria's diplomatic mission in Tehran was summoned separately to the Foreign Ministry, IRNA said. The step comes after Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry in Berlin on October 2 in response to Iran's attack on Israel. The ambassador was out of town so the charge d'affaires of the embassy was made aware that the German government condemned the attack in the strongest possible terms.
Iranians Fear 'War Is Coming' After Tehran's Missile Attack On Israel
Hundreds of people celebrated on the streets of Tehran after Iran launched its biggest-ever attack on Israel on October 1.
“This attack showed Iran’s power and authority,” Abbas, who was among the crowd in the Iranian capital, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
But many Iranians who spoke to Radio Farda expressed fear of Israeli military retaliation and the prospect of an all-out war with Israel.
“We’ve been in a state of fear and stress for months,” said Naghmeh, a resident of Tehran. “Now we look to the skies to see when [Israel] will attack.”
Israel has vowed a severe response to Iran’s massive missile attack on October 1.
The assault was bigger and bolder than Iran’s unprecedented strikes on Israel in April, when Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at its archenemy. Israel retaliated by hitting an air-defense radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
Experts have warned of a stronger Israeli response, and media reports say Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or critical infrastructure, a prospect that has alarmed Iranians.
“This time, the prospect of war is more serious,” Parastu, a journalist in Tehran, told Radio Farda.
She said many Iranians have stocked up on food and medicine following Iran’s attack. There have been long lines at gas stations in the city, she said.
'People Live In Fear'
Maryam, who saw missiles being launched at Israel from Iran on October 1, said ordinary Iranians will pay the “highest cost.”
“While the officials and their families live in peace, people live in fear,” she said.
Alireza, another Iranian, told Radio Farda that he was considering selling his assets and moving abroad because “it seems that this time, war is coming.”
Several younger Iranians who spoke to Radio Farda appeared unfazed by the prospect of war. That has surprised the generation of Iranians who witnessed the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
“They have no understanding of war and its consequences,” said Fereshteh, who is from Khuzestan Province, one of the worst-hit areas during the war with Iraq. “It looks like we’re going to be displaced again.”
The fear is not just limited to Iranians.
Members of Iran’s sizeable Afghan community, some of whom fled Taliban rule in Afghanistan, are scared that they might be forced to leave the Islamic republic.
“We had no choice but to flee Afghanistan for Iran out of fears for our lives, but today the rising tensions between Iran and Israel suggest that the region is on the brink of war,” Afghan women’s rights activist Halima Pazhwak told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.
“We don’t know where to go from here,” she added.
Written by Kian Sharifi based on reporting by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda and Radio Azadi. The full names of the people who spoke to Radio Farda have been withheld for their safety.
- By RFE/RL
U.S. Says Biggest Election Influence Threats Come From Russia, Iran, China
The United States expects Russia, Iran, and China to continue their attempts to influence the November 5 elections by using artificial intelligence to disseminate fake information, according to a report released on October 2 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
The department considers the three countries the most pressing foreign threats to U.S. critical infrastructure and expects them to remain so.
The Justice Department last week provided examples of how Russia was behind a fake San Francisco television channel that spread lies about Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic party's nominee for president.
The fictitious station used actors to create a fake broadcast about Harris's involvement in a hit-and-run incident that never occurred. The fake broadcast was viewed by millions on X and TikTok before the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters the Russian "influence actors" were behind it.
These "influence actors" have also attempted to stoke discord by amplifying stories about migrants entering the United States and have used generative artificial intelligence (AI) to create fake websites that appeared to be authentic U.S.-based media outlets, the DHS report said.
"Nation-states, criminal hacktivists, and financially motivated criminals will likely hone their techniques to disrupt U.S. services or to conduct espionage focused on gaining access to U.S. networks and critical infrastructure entities," the DHS said in its annual homeland threat assessment.
The DHS assessment anticipates Russia, Iran, and China "will use a blend of subversive, undeclared, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine confidence in U.S. democratic institutions and domestic social cohesion."
The report said Iran has become "increasingly aggressive in its foreign influence efforts," citing Iranian actors who posed as activists online to encourage protests over the conflict in Gaza.
Polls indicate the presidential election between Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump will be so close that the result could further inflame partisan tensions and offer opportunities for foreign adversaries to try to disrupt the democratic process.
Domestic violent extremists pose another serious threat, according to the report. DHS said it expects domestic extremists to attempt violent actions "with the intent of instilling fear among voters, candidates, and election workers, as well as disrupting election processes."
With reporting by Reuters
- By Giovana Faria,
- Will Tizard and
- Kaisa Alliksaar
Will Iran's Attacks On Israel Trigger A Regional Blowup?
For the second time, Iran has directly attacked Israel, launching hundreds of missiles on October 1. Analysts say the timing and logic of the attacks are down to pressure on Iran to respond following Israel's decisive blows against Lebanon-based Hezbollah leaders and Hamas.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran Braces For Major Blowback After Biggest-Ever Attack On Israel
Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, Tehran's largest-ever direct attack on its archenemy.
The October 1 attack was bigger and bolder than Iran's unprecedented strikes on Israel in April. Tehran also used more advanced missiles and gave little warning before launching its latest attack.
The full extent of the damage and casualties caused by Iran's missile attack is still unclear. But Israel has vowed a severe response.
Experts said Israel's retaliation is likely to be stronger compared to April, when its response was relatively muted, given the larger scale of Iran's latest direct attack.
"Israel is certainly going to deal a much more devastating blow to Iran," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
Israel Counts The Cost After Iranian Missile Barrage
Risking Israeli Retaliation
Iran described its October 1 attack as retaliation for Israel's invasion of Lebanon and devastating yearlong war in the Gaza Strip as well as Israel's recent assassinations of key Iranian allies in the region.
Israeli forces launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1 following a week of devastating air raids.
Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27 killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Israeli attacks have decimated the leadership and degraded the fighting capabilities of Hezbollah, Iran's closest ally and key to Tehran's strategy of deterrence against Israel. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Meanwhile, Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas and an ally of Iran, was killed in a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran in July.
Experts said domestic pressure to respond to Israel and Iran's weakening position in the region forced Tehran's hand.
"Iran seems to have come to the conclusion that the costs of inaction outweighed the risks of taking action," said Vaez.
"Tehran no doubt is aware of the risks in not only repeating but expanding its missile barrage it rained on Israel, thereby inviting an Israeli retaliation that seems all but certain to follow," he added.
Big Attack, Big Response
Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel in April, Tehran's first-ever direct assault on its foe, was highly telegraphed. Iran also used long-range drones and older missiles in that attack.
In comparison, Iran's October 1 attack was "very substantial," said Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Preliminary evidence, he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda, suggests that Iran used ballistic missiles, which reached Israel in just minutes. The likely goal, Hinz says, was to give Israel limited time to prepare.
In April, Israel responded to Iran's attack by hitting an air-defense radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
But experts warn that Israeli retaliation is likely to be more severe this time.
Media reports citing Israeli officials said the country could strike strategic sites inside Iran, including energy facilities.
A possible Israeli strike on an oil or gas facility in energy-rich Iran would be optically spectacular, but not strategically damaging, said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.
Hitting a nuclear facility, Nadimi told Radio Farda, would be riskier and require a large attack, considering that Iran's key nuclear infrastructure is deep underground.
Strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, which Israel and the United States have reportedly rehearsed, could push Tehran to weaponize its nuclear program, experts have warned.
"Regardless of [Israel's] target, such a blow is bound to compel Tehran to retaliate, triggering a ballistic missile ping-pong that could push the entire region into an abyss," Vaez said.
Hannah Kaviani and Mohammad Zarghami of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By Current Time and
- Iryna Romaliyska
Israeli Pundit Runs For Cover While Speaking Live To RFE/RL
An Israeli analyst had to interrupt his live interview with Current Time television as he received an air-raid alert on the evening of October 1. Political scientist and retired diplomat Michael Pellivert was speaking via video link from Israel with the Russian-language TV and digital network run by RFE/RL when an Iranian missile attack started. "Unfortunately, I have to leave the live broadcast and take shelter in a safe room. Goodbye," Pellivert said before running for cover.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Counts The Cost After Iranian Missile Barrage
A car is covered in dirt apparently kicked up by a rocket impact in Tel Aviv. The photo was taken on the morning of October 2 after Iran launched a massive rocket attack on Israel the previous evening.
In the wake of an Iranian attack on October 1 that apparently included hypersonic missiles, Israelis survey the damage.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian President Vows 'Harsher Response' If Israel Retaliates Against Tehran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on October 2 that he is not seeking war but warned Israel against retaliating against Iran's missile attack the day before, promising a strong response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions amid growing fears of a wider regional conflict.
"We are not looking for war. It is Israel that forces us to react," Pezeshkian said after arriving in Qatar for a summit with Asian countries.
Pezeshkian criticised Israel over the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU -- in July in Tehran, an assassination Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility for.
"We also want security and peace. It was Israel that assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran," Pezeshkian was quoted saying on his arrival in Qatar.
Pezeshkian arrived in Qatar a day after Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel stepped up its war with Tehran's proxy Hezbollah by sending troops over the border into Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he would strike back at Iran following the October 1 missile attack.
"If the Zionist regime (Israel) does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions," Pezeshkian said as he left for the trip, Iranian state media reported.
He added that the United States and European countries should tell Israel not to destabilize the region.
He reiterated his remarks at a joint press conference in Doha with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, saying that if Israel acts in one way against Iran then Tehran will respond in a more severe way.
Tehran on October 1 launched a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel, its largest so far, in retaliation for the campaign launched by the Jewish state in southern Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, prompting warnings of countermeasures from Israel and its main ally, the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a message on X that the attack targeted "solely military and security sites" involved in what he said was the Israeli "genocide in Gaza and Lebanon" and was conducted by Iran in "self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter."
"Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Araghchi said.
Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) earlier said the missile attack was in response to Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
People who left audio messages for RFE/RL's Radio Farda in response to the attack indicated they had little hope that anything would change.
"The Islamic republic wanted to show pragmatism, but some in analytical circles (experts and journalists) who live outside of Iran, voiced support for war [and] pushed Iran to attack. Nothing will happen and [it] went hand in hand with hard-liners inside," said one man. "You can't just call for war and bloodshed living in the free world. This is against the basics of democracy. Please help. The world needs peace."
Israel Counts The Cost After Iranian Missile Barrage
A woman said it was "ridiculous," and noted that some missiles landed inside Iran.
"They think they can do anything. They lit a fire -- I hope they burn in it as well," she said.
Israeli air defenses intercepted most of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, though some landed in central and southern Israel.
Israeli rescuers said two people were lightly injured by shrapnel while in the occupied West Bank, and a Palestinian was killed in Jericho "when pieces of a rocket fell from the sky and hit him," according to the city's governor Hussein Hamayel.
In Damascus, Syria, on October 2, an attack took place in the upscale Mezzeh neighborhood. The official Syrian news agency says three people were killed in the attack that targeted an apartment. The Syrian Observatory says the apartment is used by officers from the IRGC and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah said it repelled the Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, and Israel reported its first losses -- eight soldiers killed -- since launching cross-border raids this week.
Iran's UN envoy said at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that the only way to prevent further escalation is for Israel to end the war in Gaza and stop attacks on Lebanon.
Iran's missile attack was "to restore balance and deterrence" and further escalation could be avoided if Israel stopped the war in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon, said Iranian UN Ambassador Amir Saied Iravani.
"Iran is fully prepared to take further defensive measures, if necessary, to protect its legitimate interests and defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty against any acts of military aggression and the illegal use of force," he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the October 1 attack "a big mistake" and said Tehran "will pay for it."
There has been speculation that Israeli might attack sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program, but U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support that.
Biden’s comments came after he and fellow Group of Seven leaders spoke by phone on October 2 to discuss coordinating new sanctions against Iran.
The G7 leaders "unequivocally condemned Iran's attack against Israel” and Biden reiterated the United States' "full solidarity and support to Israel and its people," a White House statement said.
- By Margot Buff,
- AFP,
- AP and
- Reuters
Israel Vows To Retaliate As Iran Launches Missile Attack
Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel's operations targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli military said it would retaliate against Iran in due time. The missile attack and Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon marked a dramatic escalation in the regional conflict.
Iranian Missiles Trigger Israeli Air Defenses
Air-raid sirens sounded across Israel on the evening of October 1 as Iran fired missiles at the country. Footage from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem showed flashing dots in the dark sky as Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system intercepted projectiles.
- By AP
Iran Preparing Imminent Ballistic Missile Attack On Israel, U.S. Official Says
Iran is preparing to "imminently" launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, according to a senior U.S. administration official who warned of "severe consequences" should it take place. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the United States is actively supporting Israeli defensive preparations. Iran’s state media has not suggested any attack is imminent. This comes after the Israeli military on October 1 warned people to evacuate nearly two dozen Lebanese border communities hours after announcing what it said were limited ground operations against Hezbollah. White House officials did not immediately offer any evidence backing its intelligence finding.
- By Kian Sharifi
Why Has Israel Launched A Ground Invasion Of Lebanon?
Israel has invaded southern Lebanon, in what it has called a “limited, localized, and targeted” ground operation against Hezbollah.
Israeli forces on October 1 crossed the border for the first time since the 34-day Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006.
Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
What Is Israel’s Goal?
The Israeli military has said its aim is to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. One army division, which usually numbers more than 10,000 soldiers, is involved, it said.
Israel last month made the return of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel displaced by Hezbollah attacks a key war aim. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip in October 2023.
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border, including tunnels and observations posts.
“In that sense it is ‘limited,’ as the goal is not to defeat Hezbollah, which would require a much broader invasion of most of Lebanon,” he said.
But it is unclear if Israel’s invasion will be limited in scope.
U.S. officials have noted that Israel initially billed its 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon a “limited” attack, which turned into an 18-year occupation.
Israel has also ordered communities in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers from the border, raising concerns of a larger offensive.
Horowitz said Israel risks being “pulled in even deeper” if it tries to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. But he said Israeli leaders likely want to avoid being dragged into a protracted war.
“At the same time, if Israeli troops pull back, Hezbollah is likely to come back and launch new attacks against Israel, which would be embarrassing for the Israeli government,” he said.
Can Hezbollah Put Up A Fight?
Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel has assassinated most of its leadership, neutralized a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupted its communications.
While Hezbollah has been weakened, experts said the group should not be written off, given its considerable manpower and military arsenal.
Israel thinks Hezbollah is “in a state of chaos, and there's a gap in the command-and-control system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “We can expect initial advances and successes by Israel.”
But Hezbollah, he said, has a “considerable advantage” in ground fighting because of the group’s experience in guerilla warfare and familiarity with local terrain.
Since it was formed in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has grown to become the dominant military power in Lebanon, effectively sidelining the country’s conventional army.
Azizi said the Lebanese Army is “comparatively weak” compared to Hezbollah, which is estimated to have some 40,000 fighters.
The army has only a limited presence in southern Lebanon, where a UN peacekeeping force is deployed. With Hezbollah controlling much of the region, the Lebanese Army is unlikely to play a major role in ground combat with Israeli forces.
The Lebanese army “simply isn't built to defend Lebanon from the [Israeli Defense Forces] and, there is probably a lot of international pressure to move it out of the way,” said Horowitz.
Will Iran Get Involved?
Iran, Hezbollah’s key ally, has been under pressure to respond after Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of the organization, in air strikes in Beirut on September 27. Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon is only likely to heap more pressure on Tehran.
But experts said Tehran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could provoke all-out war with its archenemy.
When another Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was at risk of being toppled during that country’s civil war, Iran intervened to keep him in power.
But Azizi said Iran is unlikely to deploy proxy forces as well as its own military advisers -- as it did in Syria -- in Lebanon.
The Lebanese government has also blocked Iranian planes from entering the country’s airspace after threats from Israel.
Azizi argued that Iran’s only viable option is to help other members of its so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran’s loose network of proxies and allies – to “mobilize and increase their attacks against Israel.”
'When Iran Is Finally Freed': Netanyahu's Video Message Goes Viral On Persian Social Media
Shortly before Israel launched its ground operation into southern Lebanon aimed at disrupting the operations of Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video message to the people of Iran.
He said Israel is "by your side" but warned that "there is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country."
And "with every passing moment," he said, the Iranian regime is bringing "the noble Persian people closer to the abyss."
In the video, released on September 30 in English with Persian subtitles, Netanyahu said that if the Iranian government really cared about its people, "it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East."
However, what really caught the attention of Iranian viewers was when Netanyahu said, "When Iran is finally freed -- and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think -- everything will be different.”
It's not the first time the Israeli prime minister has addressed Iranians directly in a video message. The Israeli government and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) maintain dedicated Persian-speaking social media accounts and frequently share content with the aim of influencing Iranians, particularly those who are against the regime in Tehran.
Netanyahu's latest video was met with both worry and support on Persian-language social media.
Saeed Ghasseminejad of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C., said he believes Iranians “welcome” such messaging by Netanyahu, saying, "The nation of Iran and the nation of Israel have common interests in overthrowing the Islamic republic."
Others, however, saw it as a "concerning" indication that military action against Iran is imminent, while some said they believed Netanyahu's video -- aimed at ordinary Iranians -- was a reminder to the Islamic republic's rulers that they did not have the support of the people.
Kaveh Shirzad, a France-based political activist, welcomed Netanyahu’s message while acknowledging that the Israeli prime minister "is not a saint," saying, “There are criticisms of his performance."
"Personally," he said, "I am waiting for Israel's practical steps, and I hope that [Netanyahu's] speech will not remain mere words."
Shirzad said he hopes Nenatnyahu “will help the people of Iran in overthrowing the government and achieving a stable democracy."
Ramin Parham, a Paris-based writer and commentator, wrote that while the content of Netanyahu's message may be welcomed, the problem is with the “messenger.”
"Change the medium (or the messenger) and the message will resonate," he wrote.
Some observers in Iran and beyond said such messaging from Israel actually plays into the hands of the Iranian state rather than supporting the plight of the Iranian people.
Paris-based anthropologist and writer Amin Bozorgian wrote on Telegram that Netanyahu's message represents a “fundamental discrediting of the will of Iranians” who wish to change their situation and is the “most exquisite gift of Netanyahu to the Iranian government.”
Bozorgian criticized “those who cheered Netanyahu from within Iran,” while stating, “Israel actually undermines the idea of change from within.”
Hamid Asefi, a political activist based in Tehran, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that "tragically" some in society are “tired of the political struggle of recent decades” and may well welcome such a message from Netanyahu.
However, Asefi, who was recently detained by the Iranian authorities for a short time, asked: “When did Israel liberate a group of people in this region, which is filled with authoritarian regimes?”
And he warned of the “catastrophic” results of a possible military attack on Iran’s infrastructure. As he told Radio Farda: “As long as [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei doesn’t listen to the hard-liners -- which up until now seems like he hasn’t, based on fear or pragmatism -- that's acceptable for us.”
Reza Rashidpour, an Iran-based media personality, said he was looking for more than just words from Israel, sarcastically writing on X: “Even when you go to the hairdresser, you ask for a sample of the work.”
"We heard that Netanyahu is going to bring freedom and peace to our country," Rashidpour wrote. "Can we see a sample first?"
Addressing concerns of a possible military attack on Iran by Israel, U.S.-based journalist Masoumeh Naseri wrote on X: “Bombs don't ask your political beliefs before they drop."
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Vows To Retaliate As Iran Launches Massive Missile Attack
Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Lebanon's Hezbollah in a new escalation of the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the country’s air defenses intercepted many of the estimated 180 missiles that were fired, though some landed in central and southern Israel. He said the military was not aware of any injuries and told Israelis about an hour after the attack was launched that it was safe for them to leave their bomb shelters.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the attack "a big mistake" and said Tehran "will pay for it." He added: "Whoever attacks us, we attack them."
U.S. President Joe Biden said he would discuss a response with Netanyahu. Asked what the response would be, Biden replied: "That's in active discussion right now. That remains to be seen."
He added that the attack appears to have been "defeated and ineffective, and this is a testament to Israeli military capability and the U.S. military" and said the United States is "fully supportive of Israel."
One Palestinian was killed by falling debris from an intercepted missile, according to the mayor of the city of Jericho in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Israeli police reported that at least six people were killed and nine wounded in a shooting and stabbing attack in Tel Aviv.
Police said it was a "terrorist" attack carried out at a light rail station and the two attackers were later killed by civilians and inspectors using their own firearms. There has been no claim of responsibility.
While the missile attack sent Israelis scurrying to take cover in bomb shelters, it prompted people in Iran to celebrate. State television broadcast images from the city of Mashhad showing people in the streets waving the yellow flag of Hezbollah and portraits of the group's slain chief, Hassan Nasrallah. Similar celebrations also took place in the capital Tehran and in several provincial cities.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in the November 5 presidential election, monitored the attack together at the White House, and Harris said afterward that Iran is a "destabilizing, dangerous force in the Middle East."
National-security adviser Jake Sullivan called the attack a significant escalation by Iran but added that it was ultimately “defeated and ineffective” in part because of assistance from the U.S. military in shooting down some of the inbound missiles.
"Initial reports indicate that Israel was able to intercept the majority of incoming missiles and that there was minimal damage on the ground," Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder said, noting two American destroyers fired about a dozen interceptors as part of the defensive effort.
The number of ballistic missiles fired was about twice as many as were fired in an attack on Israel earlier this year, Ryder added in a briefing with journalists. The attack in April was in retaliation for a deadly Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the missile attack on October 1 targeted three military bases around Tel Aviv. It also warned that if Israel retaliated, Tehran's response would be "more crushing and ruinous." Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU, praised the attack as "heroic."
World leaders urged Iran and Israel to step back from the brink and negotiate a cease-fire.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the "broadening conflict in the Middle East" following fighting in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis. Guterres slammed "escalation after escalation" in the region.
"This must stop. We absolutely need a cease-fire," he said.
The UN Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting on the Middle East to take place on October 2.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also called for an immediate cease-fire and condemned Iran's attack "in the strongest terms," while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the attack was "totally unacceptable" and should be condemned by the entire world."
Earlier on October 1, the Israeli military said it had launched "targeted and precise" raids inside Lebanon in what it called a "limited" ground incursion that started overnight, adding that its troops were engaged in "heavy fighting" with Hezbollah, the militant group that controls much of the area.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. The European Union blacklists Hezbollah's armed wing but not its political party, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Israel has launched withering air attacks on Hezbollah in recent weeks, killing Nasrallah as well as claiming the lives of multiple Hezbollah leaders and other members of sanctioned militant groups.
- By RFE/RL and
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Israel Moves Closer To Ground Offensive In Lebanon, Despite Biden Opposition
Israel appeared to move closer to launching a ground offensive against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, while U.S. President Joe Biden forcefully said he opposed such a move by the close U.S. ally, as events in the Middle East threatened to spin out of control.
"The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon," Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 30, as the U.S. State Department reported that Israeli special forces had launched small ground raids against Hezbollah and sealed off communities along its northern border.
"We will use all the means that may be required -- your forces, other forces, from the air, from the sea, and on land," Gallant told his troops.
"The elimination of [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah is an important step, but it is not the final one."
Israel killed longtime nemesis Nasrallah on September 27 as it launched a series of massive air strikes in and around Beirut and southern Lebanon that has also claimed the lives of multiple Hezbollah leaders and other members of sanctioned militant groups.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
In a televised address, Naim Qassem, deputy director of Hezbollah -- an Iran-backed militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon -- claimed that his fighters were "ready if Israel decides to enter by land."
A Lebanese official told the AFP news agency that Lebanon had moved the soldiers of its small national army from regions near the Israeli border to avoid any conflict in the event of a ground offensive by Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, when asked whether he was comfortable with Israel launching a ground operation in Lebanon, Biden told reporters that “I'm comfortable with them stopping. We should have a cease-fire now.”
Later, as tensions mounted, the White House said in a statement that Washington believes the way to get an Israel-Lebanon cease-fire is to have a diplomatic resolution.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, speaking from Beirut, also urged Israel "to refrain from any ground incursion and to cease fire." He also called on Hezbollah "to do the same and to refrain from any action likely to lead to regional destabilization."
Israeli attacks in Lebanon and in Yemen against Iran-backed Huthi rebels and claims by Tehran-allied Hezbollah militants that they had fired into Israel with its new "nour missile" – which observers say might be a ballistic missile – led to increased fears on September 30 that there could be an all-out war in the Middle East.
Late on September 30, an Israeli air strike hit Beirut's southern suburbs, creating large explosions after Israel's military had warned civilians to leave three specific buildings that would be targeted in the densely populated neighborhood.
Separately, Iran said it will not deploy forces to Lebanon or the Gaza Strip to fight Israel amid the intensified attacks against the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said on September 30, saying Lebanon and fighters in the Palestinian territories "have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression."
Kanani's statement came as Qassem said in a video message that a replacement for Nasrallah will be chosen "sooner, rather than later."
In the message, he said the selection will be made within the regular mechanisms of Hezbollah. He gave no further details.
Nasrallah was killed last week in an Israeli air strike on the southern command center of Hezbollah.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian visited the Hezbollah office in Tehran on September 30 "to pay tribute" to Nasrallah, according to the government's website.
Israel's air strikes continued on September 30, including a hit on central Beirut, the first in nearly a year of escalating conflict with Hezbollah, that began after another Iran-supported group designated as a terrorist organization, Hamas, launched an operation into Israel that killed some 1,200 people, with another 250 taken hostage back to the Gaza Strip.
Israel's military has also widened its attacks on Iran-backed militant groups, striking the Yemeni port city of Hodeida, which is held by Tehran-allied Huthi rebels, even as it intensified air strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon.
The losses suffered by Hezbollah appear to be the heaviest since Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps helped create the militant group in 1982 to blunt an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Nasrallah joined Hezbollah to fight in that conflict, and in 1992 became its leader, building the group into Lebanon's most powerful military and political force.
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran Faces Dilemma As It Weighs Response To Hezbollah Leader's Killing
Iran faces a major dilemma after Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a key ally of Tehran, in air strikes in Lebanon on September 27.
If Iran launches a direct military strike on Israel, it risks provoking an all-out war with its archenemy. If Tehran opts for restraint, it could suffer a blow to its reputation among both allies and foes in the region.
Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, is a leading member of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and armed groups against Israel.
The Shi’ite organization -- considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing -- is also key to Iran’s strategy of deterrence against Israel and the United States.
“Iran is in a sticky situation where it desperately wants to be able to respond, but fears the consequence of doing so directly,” said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
No Good Options
Iran is unlikely to launch a direct military strike on Israel, a move that could trigger a costly full-scale war that Tehran has been keen to avoid, experts said.
In the event of a direct conflict, Israel has overwhelming military superiority, although Iran’s arsenal of drones and missiles poses a significant threat, according to experts.
“Iran’s options range from bad to worse against Israel given its conventional military deficiencies and the blows its regional terror network has endured,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
Iran in April launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel. It came soon after suspected Israeli air strikes killed seven senior Iranian commanders in Syria.
But Taleblu said the Islamic republic will likely only launch another direct attack on Israel if the threat is “existential and to the homeland.”
With direct confrontation likely off the table, experts said Iran could turn to other members of its axis -- including pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Yemen’s Huthi rebels, and militias in Syria -- to inflict damage on Israel and its key ally, the United States.
Iran’s axis of resistance has suffered major losses since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, casting doubt on its ability to retaliate against Israel.
Hamas has been severely weakened in the Palestinian enclave. Israel, meanwhile, has killed Nasrallah and most of Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon in recent months. Israel has also targeted the Huthis and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq.
Leaning Toward Restraint
Iranian leaders have appeared to be unusually restrained since Nasrallah’s killing.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not threatened a direct Iranian response. That contrasts with his explicit promise of revenge after Israel’s suspected killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, in Tehran in July.
“Iran walked back the promise of hard revenge and bloodlust after the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran because it felt things were at least politically going its way in the region,” said Taleblu.
“But the increasingly lethal and bold Israeli actions against Hezbollah in the past two weeks have been nothing short of a strategic game changer against the Islamic republic and its [axis of resistance],” he added.
Still, Iran appears to be adopting a strategy of restraint.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on September 30 that the country would not deploy forces to Lebanon or the Gaza Strip to fight Israel because Hamas and Hezbollah "have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression."
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Iran’s unwillingness to respond to Israel’s attacks on its allies could deal a blow to Tehran’s reputation and standing in the region.
“The perception is that Tehran is unable to enforce its own red lines against Israel,” he said. “Even if that is not true, it makes Iran look weak. And perceived weakness invites greater challenge.”
Going Nuclear
Even as Khamenei appears to be exercising restraint, hard-liners in Iran have called for military action against Israel. Some have even urged Tehran to weaponize the country’s nuclear program, arguing that only a nuclear deterrent will ensure Israel will not directly attack Iran.
Iranian media reports have said that the country has enough enriched uranium to produce 10 nuclear bombs. But experts said it could take Iran months, or even more than a year, to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a bomb.
Sabet said Iran’s calculus could change if it determines that the capabilities of Hezbollah, Tehran’s key deterrent against Israel, have been significantly degraded.
“As the current regional conflict evolves, the Islamic republic may soon face a ‘use it or lose it’ moment, when it must decide whether to build nuclear weapons [or not],” said Sabet.
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