Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

The Taliban on March 1 celebrated the third anniversary of the controversial U.S.-Taliban agreement, hailing it as a "great victory" and the "last nail in the coffin" of the "imperial invader."

Under the 2020 deal, Washington agreed to the unconditional withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan in exchange for counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban, which pledged to negotiate a peace settlement with the internationally recognized Afghan government.

But the Taliban took advantage of the rapid drawdown of foreign troops by launching a major offensive against Afghan security forces. Within weeks, the militants had seized Kabul.

U.S. State Department Spokesman Ned Price on March 1 conceded that the agreement "empowered the Taliban [and] it weakened our partners in the Afghan government," which was excluded from the bilateral U.S.-Taliban deal.

In a new report, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a U.S. government watchdog, concluded that the agreement "set in motion a series of events" that led to the collapse of the U.S.-funded Afghan armed forces.

Why It's Important: Since returning to power, the Taliban has appeared to renege on its key commitments under the U.S.-Taliban deal, including denying sanctuary to extremist groups.

The Taliban has been accused of sheltering the leadership of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group, which has staged deadly attacks in neighboring Pakistan in recent years.

Meanwhile, a U.S. drone strike in July killed Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahri in the heart of Kabul, where he was believed to have lived under the protection of the Taliban.

The Taliban's failure to abide by the bilateral deal with the United States has undermined its efforts to gain international recognition and secure foreign assistance.

What's Next: The Taliban's violations of the agreement as well as its human rights abuses and repression of women have once again made it an international pariah.

The international community has sanctioned and blacklisted key Taliban members and cut off the militant group from the international financial system.

But it is ordinary Afghans, reeling from a devastating humanitarian and economic crisis, who are most affected by the Taliban's growing isolation.

The Week's Best Stories

The snowy slopes of Bamiyan in central Afghanistan had become a high-altitude safe space for amateur women skiers over the past two decades. But everything has gone downhill since the return of Taliban rule and the hard-line Islamist group's ban on women participating in sports.

Samira Mohammadi's restaurant in the Afghan capital is run exclusively by and for women. It serves as a rare haven in a society where the Taliban has restricted women's basic freedoms since coming to power in 2021.

What To Keep An Eye On

The Taliban on February 28 announced that it killed two senior members of the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group in recent weeks.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said Qari Fateh, who he described as IS-K's intelligence and operations chief, was killed in a raid in Kabul on February 26.

The Taliban said it killed Ijaz Amin Ahangar, who was believed to be the leader of IS-K on the Indian subcontinent, in a separate operation last month in Kabul.

Why It's Important: Since seizing power, the Taliban has waged a brutal war against IS-K, its rival.

But the extremists have continued to carry out high-profile attacks against religious minorities, Taliban officials, and foreign missions in Afghanistan.

The attacks have undermined the Taliban-led government and highlighted the enduring threat from IS-K militants.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Pakistan’s defense minister and spy chief visited Kabul on February 22 for talks with senior Taliban officials.

The high-profile visit appeared aimed at easing tensions over recent border clashes and closures, as well as militant attacks in Pakistan.

The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has staged a string of deadly attacks in Pakistan in recent months. Islamabad has accused the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the Pakistani militant group.

In response, the Taliban has accused Islamabad of allowing U.S. drones to fly over its territory and into Afghanistan. The Afghan militants have also accused Islamabad of turning a blind eye to Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), a foe of the Taliban that is present along the Afghan-Pakistan border.

In a February 22 statement, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said that "the two sides agreed to collaborate to effectively address the threat of terrorism."

The Taliban said it expressed its "clear and thorough" views on "drone flights over our territory and the activities of the armed opposition," in an apparent reference to IS-K.

Why It's Important: Attempts by the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan to smooth over their differences appear to have failed.

The Taliban on February 22 agreed to reopen the key Torkham border crossing, days after closing it and accusing Pakistan of unilaterally changing entry rules for Afghans. But on February 23, Islamabad closed its side of the border.

The Afghan Taliban and Pakistan have been close allies for decades. But their relations have plummeted since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Instead of providing the security bulwark Islamabad expected from the Taliban in return for allegedly sheltering its leaders and helping its insurgency for over two decades, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has become a security concern for Pakistan.

The Taliban's ideological and organizational ally, the TTP, has recuperated under its rule. Its attacks inside Pakistan have soared since Afghan Taliban-brokered peace talks between the TTP and Islamabad last year failed.

What's Next: It is unclear if the sides are willing or able to smooth over their differences.

The Afghan Taliban is unlikely to crack down or expel the TTP, although it could convince the militants to decrease their attacks inside Pakistan.

If the TTP continues to wreak havoc in Pakistan, Islamabad could resort to military action inside Afghanistan, a move that would likely escalate tensions even further.

The Week's Best Story

The Taliban has banned begging and rounded up thousands of impoverished Afghans seeking alms on the streets of Kabul in recent months. But many of Kabul’s poorest are now going door-to-door around the city in search of food or cash in order to survive. Among them is Shakiba, who told Radio Azadi that she has “no choice but to send my children to people's houses to beg."

What To Keep An Eye On

The Taliban announced on February 22 that it has established a consortium with companies from Russia, Iran, and Pakistan in a bid to attract investment.

Taliban Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi said his ministry and 14 Afghan businessmen had signed a memorandum of understanding with foreign firms to assess up to $1 billion in various projects, including in the fields of mining, power, and infrastructure.

The Taliban also announced this week that it would turn former foreign military bases in Afghanistan into special economic zones.

Why It's Important: The cash-strapped Taliban government, which remains unrecognized by any country, has tried to attract foreign investment, but international sanctions and isolation have hampered those efforts.

The Taliban has turned to neighbors like Pakistan, China, and Iran, as well as Russia. But the Pakistani, Iranian, and Russian governments and firms are unlikely to be able to invest heavily in Afghanistan. Islamabad is struggling with a sharp economic downturn. Meanwhile, Tehran and Moscow are reeling from crippling Western sanctions.

The Taliban, however, appears to be successfully generating much needed revenue, mainly through tax collection and exports. A recent World Bank report said Afghan exports, including coal, rose to $1.7 billion last year, surpassing the figures for the past two years.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.