Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

A delegation of Taliban officials is attending the UN climate talks in Baku for the first time since returning to power three years ago.

The unrecognized Taliban government was not invited to the previous three COP meetings in Britain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, despite Afghanistan’s status as one of the nations most vulnerable to the ravages of climate change.

The head of the Taliban’s National Environmental Protection Agency, Matuil Haq Khalis, is seeking international support to mitigate the worst impacts of frequent extreme weather events.

“At COP29, we ask global leaders to respect the challenges faced by vulnerable populations about climate change and climate justice,” he said.

Why It's Important: According to the Inform Risk Index, a global risk assessment of humanitarian crises, Afghanistan is the fourth most at-risk country for a crisis due to climate change.

Despite being one of the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases, Afghanistan is already undergoing rapid climate change.

According to the UN, the country’s mean annual temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Celsius, “thus intensifying glacier and snow melt, which provide water to rivers during summer.”

With freshwater resources shrinking dramatically, the UN's children's agency, UNICEF, estimates that eight out of every 10 Afghans now drink unsafe water.

In 2022, 64 percent of households reported drought as “the most frequent shock.” Most of the country’s 34 provinces now regularly experience drought, floods, or heavy rainfall.

In spring and summer this year, flash floods killed hundreds and displaced thousands in northern Afghan provinces. Climate change has now overtaken conflict as the leading cause of displacement in the war-ravaged country.

Irregular and severe weather patterns now threaten agriculture and animal husbandry -- the primary sources of livelihood in the Afghan countryside.

What's Next: Without a marked improvement in governance and international recognition, the Taliban is unlikely to partner with the international community to address Afghanistan's looming climate disaster.

The Islamist group’s human rights record and mounting restrictions on women and aid groups already hamper the diminishing humanitarian assistance it receives.

Unfortunately, this approach will deprive some of the most vulnerable Afghan communities from receiving much-needed climate adaptation and mitigation projects.

What To Keep An Eye On

In the latest instance of capital punishment, the Taliban publicly executed an Afghan man at a sports stadium.

On November 13, Muhammad Ayaz Asad was shot dead in the southeastern city of Gardaz. A Taliban court had sentenced him for killing Saif-ul-Qatal, another Afghan man, with a Kalashnikov rifle.

He was killed after the victim’s family refused to accept “diyat,” an Islamic concept in which the victim’s family can pardon the murderer for blood money.

The execution at the hands of the victim's family is part of "qisas," or retributive Islamic punishment for alleged violent crimes.

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said executions carried out in public “are contrary to Afghanistan’s international human rights obligations and must cease.”

It called on the Taliban to establish an “immediate moratorium on all executions with a view to abolition of the death penalty.”

Why It's Important: Taliban leaders consider capital and corporal punishment a crucial part of their commitment to impose Islamic Shari’a law.

The extremist group has defied international criticism and domestic disapproval by carrying out these punishments publicly.

Such punishments are likely to continue and grow under Taliban rule, even while Afghans see them as part of Taliban oppression.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.

In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”

During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.

The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.

During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.

Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.

The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.

“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”

Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.

“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.

What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.

But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.

What To Keep An Eye On

An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.

The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.

“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”

Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.

In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.

Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.

Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.

India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.

The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org