Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Afghans have widely criticized a viral video showing two Iranian police officers brutally restraining an Afghan teenager on a road in the capital, Tehran.

The victim, Mahdi Musavi, 16, is unconscious and under treatment for injuries he sustained when a police officer kneeled on his neck. At the same time, another plainclothes man held him tightly to the ground.

“I do not wish such a day for my enemies,” said Masuma Mohammadi, his mother. “My son suffers from hearing and speech disorders.”

The video, which first emerged on August 7, is amplifying Afghan fears that their increasing harassment and abuse in Iran is aimed at expelling the more than 4.3 million Afghan refugees and migrants that the UN estimates are currently living in the country.

During the past year, Iran expelled some 500,000 Afghans after its government announced a campaign to force undocumented foreigners to leave the country.

Why It's Important: Negative sentiments against Afghans have been rising in Iran since the growing influx of mostly impoverished Afghans began after the Taliban returned to power three years ago.

Iranian officials have consistently blamed Afghan migrants for crimes, unemployment, and other problems.

During the past year, Tehran’s campaign to expel undocumented foreigners appears to have affected the treatment of Afghans, with incidents of police brutality and mob violence against them on the rise.

On August 7, Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported that police arrested 50 Afghans in Tehran’s Shahriar county as part of an “emergency plan to gather undocumented Afghans.”

Statements by Iranian officials indicate that an official drive to create conditions to force impoverished Afghans to leave by the end of the year is in full force.

On August 6, Majid Shuja, the commander of border forces in Iran’s northeastern Razavi Khorasan Province, said his forces have arrested and deported more than 15,000 Afghans to the neighboring Afghan province of Herat so far this year.

Ahmad Moqori, a senior law enforcement official in the northwestern East Azerbaijan Province, said Afghans can no longer live in the region even if they have legal documents allowing them to reside there.

East Azerbaijan is the latest among the growing number of Iran’s 31 provinces where Afghans can no longer live.

What's Next: Afghans are often likely to be victims of mob violence and abuse by Iranian law enforcement.

Yet widespread poverty and skyrocketing unemployment in Afghanistan is likely to push large numbers of Afghans to continue to look for work in Iran.

What To Keep An Eye On

Climate change has displaced more Afghans during the first six months of this year than all of last year.

More than 38,000 Afghans were forced to leave their homes by the end of June compared to more than 37,000 in all of 2023.

Save the Children, a nongovernmental organization, said its analysis of the preliminary data collected by the International Displacement Monitoring Center shows that landslides, floods, avalanches, storms, droughts, and extreme temperatures are now the leading causes of why Afghans abandon their homes.

Since 1980, over four decades of war have turned Afghans into one of the largest displaced populations globally. But beginning in 2022, more Afghans are now being displaced by natural disasters caused by climate change.

“Afghanistan also had the highest number of children made homeless by climate disasters of any country in the world as of the end of 2023,” said the briefing.

Some 747,094 Afghan children were displaced by the end of last year.

Afghans are South Asia’s largest long-term displaced group and the second-most displaced globally, slightly behind Syrians.

Why It's Important: Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to the ravages of climate change.

But its cash-strapped Taliban government can do little to adapt and mitigate as international development funding disappears.

That's all from me for now.

Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

A new report by the United Nations says Afghanistan under Taliban rule is turning into a hub for extremist groups.

“Terrorism emanating from Afghanistan will be a driver of insecurity in the region and further afield,” said the report by the UN Security Council committee that monitors the Islamic State (IS) extremist group and the Al-Qaeda terrorist network.

Issued on July 22, the report details how extremist groups with thousands of fighters endanger the security of Afghanistan’s neighbors and pose a growing threat globally.

The report identified Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghanistan branch of IS, as the “most serious threat” in the Central and South Asia region and said the group was “projecting terror beyond Afghanistan.”

The report said Al-Qaeda was adopting “strategic patience” in Afghanistan. Building ties with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) extremist group that is waging an insurgency against Islamabad, Al-Qaeda could transform the Pakistani militants into a regional threat, the report warned.

“With Taliban acquiescence, and at times support, TTP has intensified attacks inside Pakistan,” the report said, noting that the Pakistani group is estimated to have around 6,500 fighters.

Why It's Important: Nearly three years after the Taliban’s return to power, there are increasing fears that Afghanistan is once again turning into the headquarters of global terrorism.

The Taliban has battled against IS-K and claims to have severely curtailed its operations in Afghanistan. But the Taliban’s alliances and relations with other extremist groups, including the TTP, have allowed militancy to flourish in the region.

For now, fewer Afghans are dying in terrorist attacks than in recent years, according to a new report by the Institute of Economics and Peace, an Australian think tank. But attacks by Afghanistan-based militant groups abroad are increasing.

External attacks by extremist groups based in Afghanistan could provoke retaliation against the Taliban. Islamabad has already carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan in response to TTP attacks.

The United States says it is working to prevent the reemergence of external terrorism threats from Afghanistan. Vedant Patel, a deputy spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, said on August 1 that Washington is employing international cooperation to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a launching pad for terrorist attacks.

What's Next: The Taliban is expected to keep fighting IS-K because of ideological differences.

But it is unlikely to stop harboring or clamp down on other extremist groups on Afghan soil. That will continue to make Afghanistan a threat to the region and beyond.

What To Keep An Eye On

The Taliban’s unrecognized government on July 30 announced that it was cutting ties with 14 Afghan diplomatic missions abroad and will cease to accept consular documents issued by those missions.

They include Afghan missions in Australia, Canada, Poland, Greece, London, Belgium, Berlin, Bonn, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway.

But many of those missions have vowed to defy the Taliban and continue their consular and diplomatic services without any interruption.

“Until the Taliban take steps to gain domestic and international legitimacy, their announcements will have no bearing on our work,” Muhibullah Taib, an Afghan diplomat in Switzerland, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.

The Taliban’s decision is likely to impact hundreds of thousands of Afghans based abroad.

“It will not allow Afghans to travel,” Hamza Khan, an Afghan living in France, told Radio Azadi. “We demand that the Taliban rescind this decision.”

Why It's Important: Since seizing power, the Taliban has tried to gain control of Afghan diplomatic missions abroad in a bid to boost its legitimacy.

So far, the Taliban has successfully assumed control of Afghan diplomatic missions in more than a dozen countries in the region.

But it now appears to be seeking to assert authority over missions in Western nations where Afghan diplomats appointed by the previous government have resisted working with the Taliban.

That's all from me for now.

Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.