Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

A new report by the United Nations has documented a significant uptick in violence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

In its quarterly report, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) noted a 53 percent rise in violence between May 14 and July 31 compared to the same period last year.

UNAMA recorded 2,127 security-related incidents. Many of the attacks were carried out by anti-Taliban resistance groups, including the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group.

There was also an increase in armed clashes, detonations of improvised explosive devices, and land disputes.

Why It's Important: Rising violence in Afghanistan contradicts the Taliban's claims that it has restored order in the country three years after it seized power.

But the increasing violence is unlikely to lead to the immediate downfall of the Taliban government or trigger a civil war.

The two main anti-Taliban resistance groups carried out a total of 73 attacks during the reporting period. Most were "hit-and-run" attacks and targeted assassinations of Taliban members.

UNAMA said that "the armed opposition continued to pose no significant challenge to the Taliban's hold on territorial control."

IS-K has continued its attacks against the Taliban, religious minorities, and foreigners, despite a brutal Taliban crackdown.

"The simmering levels of violence are concerning," said Graeme Smith, a senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Still, the latest figures make it clear that the country remains a postwar environment."

A database of violent attacks and fatalities by ACLED, a data-collection, analysis, and crisis-mapping project, shows that violence peaked during the summer of 2022 after the Taliban’s return to power a year earlier. Attacks reached their lowest levels in January of this year but have peaked since then.

"Some of these trends are seasonal," Smith said of the historical pattern of violence in Afghanistan, which rises in the warmer months and declines in winter.

What's Next: Anti-Taliban resistance groups are likely to continue their low-level conflict against the Taliban.

A mostly Pashtun group dominated by clerics, the Taliban has monopolized power and sidelined many of the country’s ethnic and religious groups as well as political factions.

IS-K is likely to remain the biggest threat to the Taliban, which has eroded but not eliminated its rival's capabilities.

What To Keep An Eye On

A diplomatic spat has erupted after a Taliban diplomat refused to stand up when the Pakistani national anthem was played during an event in the country's northwest.

Islamabad complained to Kabul and summoned Afghanistan's most senior diplomat in Pakistan in protest over the incident on September 17.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry accused the Taliban diplomat of "disrespect" and said the incident was "reprehensible."

The Taliban has not officially commented on the incident. But pro-Taliban figures on social media rejected Islamabad's criticism. They said the diplomat did not stand up during the anthem because the Taliban has banned music and considers it forbidden.

Why It's Important: This diplomatic spat marks a new low in bilateral relations marked by regular accusations and threats, border clashes and closures, and Pakistan's expulsion of Afghan refugees.

Islamabad has pressured the Taliban to rein in or expel members of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan extremist group. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of sheltering the militants, which have increased their attacks in Pakistan.

That's all from me for now.

Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Afghanistan has briefly returned to the headlines as the United States heads toward a crucial November presidential election.

Republicans and Democrats blamed each other for failing to conclude an orderly withdrawal to end the conflict in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history.

In the September 10 presidential debate, Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris defended President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. She blamed her opponent, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, for concluding the 2020 Doha agreement with the Taliban, which "bypassed the Afghan government."

In response, Trump defended the Doha deal as "a very good agreement." He blamed the Biden administration for losing soldiers during the withdrawal, leaving behind weapons, and not enforcing the terms of the agreement.

On September 8, a new investigative report by House Republicans blamed Biden's administration for the chaotic final withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Representative Michael McCaul (Republican-Texas), who led the probe as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the Biden administration "had the information and opportunity" to plan for the inevitable collapse of the Afghan government. Still, it chose, "optics over security," he said.

However, the State Department accused the committee of issuing partisan statements, cherry-picking facts, and obfuscating "the truth behind conjecture."

Why It's Important: America's war in Afghanistan -- particularly its disastrous end -- is unlikely to vanish from public memory and from political debates on how the U.S.-led war on terrorism was conducted and how it ended.

Another ongoing probe will likely shed even more light on the war, which lasted for over two decades, between 2001 and 2021.

The Afghanistan War Commission, a bipartisan legislative body comprised of former U.S. government officials with experience of the war, is probing the conflict. Its report is slated to be released in 2026.

Like the 9/11 Commission report, on which it is modeled, it is likely to attract a great deal of public interest and scrutiny.

What's Next: Renewed attention on Afghanistan will likely increase amid the partisan rancor ahead of the November 5 presidential election.

However, it is unlikely to prompt a significant change in Washington's policy toward the country in the short term.

What To Keep An Eye On

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers and Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov inaugurated the construction of the Afghan section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.

On September 11, the Taliban held a groundbreaking ceremony for the long-delayed pipeline.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban's top spokesman, said Ashgabat will invest in building the pipeline, money that will be returned, the group says, when his government begins collecting transit fees estimated to be more than $500 million per annum.

Mujahid said that the pipeline inside Afghanistan will be built in three phases. The first phase, according to the spokesman, will connect the Turkmen border to the western Afghan city of Herat and will be built within two years from now. It will then begin supplying gas to the energy-starved country. The second phase will extend the pipeline to the southern province of Helmand. In the third phase, TAPI will go through the southern province of Kandahar and on to Pakistan.

The 1,800-kilometer pipeline will carry 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually through southern Afghanistan to Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province. From there, it will go through Pakistan's eastern Punjab Province to Fazilka in India's northwestern Punjab state.

Why It's Important: TAPI has long been touted as a significant regional energy project.

But insecurity in Afghanistan and the lack of international investment has prevented it from taking shape.

Given the Taliban's lack of transparency about significant infrastructure projects, it is still possible that TAPI will remain just a pipe dream.

That's all from me for now.

Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.