China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Beijing Is Playing The Long Game With Russia's Invasion

The United States has now put Beijing's close relationship with Moscow in the crosshairs -- as I reported here -- by leaking intelligence reports about Russian requests for military equipment from China in a bid to dissuade the Chinese from more strongly backing the Kremlin.

But while these allegations show potential new depths of support for Russia amid its war in Ukraine, they also clearly illustrate whose side Beijing is really on: China's.

Finding Perspective: There's no denying that China's backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin has put Beijing under new pressure.

The leaked information -- which both China and Russia have called "disinformation" -- came the night before an intense, seven-hour meeting in Rome between U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan and Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign-affairs official.

China's unwillingness to criticize Moscow for its war and its decision to support Russia in spreading propaganda and conspiracy theories has also put its relations with Europe at stake. Just a week ago, there was chatter out of Brussels about Beijing helping to bring Moscow to the negotiating table, but that seems to have faded.

All of this adds up to a strategic headache for Xi Jinping's government brought by refusing to ditch Moscow.

But despite frustrations with the Kremlin's war and the collateral damage it has brought (and could still bring), a prevailing view out of Beijing still seems to be that this will likely be short-term pain and that China is still positioned to emerge from the current crisis largely unfrayed in the long term.

For Chinese policymakers, one of the lessons learned so far appears to be that the West is becoming more united and that Russia will be needed in Beijing's corner, regardless of whether Moscow kicks up mud on China right now.

From such a view, Beijing may be able to strengthen its position and leverage over a weakened Russia and could benefit from a European Union and United States more focused on tackling problems in Eastern Europe than in the Indo-Pacific.

Why It Matters: The increased Western pressure is no doubt worrisome for China, but Beijing currently sees little upside in turning away from Russia.

Now, China's path forward is by no means certain and the scenario outlined above could also boomerang on Beijing, leaving it more isolated and under more pressure internationally than it would have predicted just a month ago.

In the meantime, China is looking to ride out the storm by behaving cautiously while still preserving its close coordination with Russia.

How things play out from the Ukraine war will no doubt be a fateful decision for Xi and for China as a whole, but it looks like Beijing has charted its course.

Read More

● China's state media and vocal officials are increasingly converging with Moscow's distorted coverage of the war -- and even beginning to push conspiracy theories in the process. Read the report here.

● Hu Wei, vice chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, warned in an article that has been censored in China that Beijing could be isolated internationally if it doesn't distance itself from Putin.

Expert Corner: The Future Of The BRI In Europe

Readers asked, "Does Russia's invasion of Ukraine derail China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ambitions with Europe?"

To find out more, I asked Andreea Brinza, vice president of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific:

"Overall, the war will negatively affect China-Europe relations, including the future of the BRI in Europe, as European countries are disappointed that China has only engaged in attacking the United States and spreading fake news, without playing any concrete role in ending the fighting.

"China's exports may suffer due to lower consumer purchasing power in the West and especially in Europe. At the same time, the railway routes of the BRI could also be affected by possible bans on products that transit across Russia, or even because some companies might stop deliveries via freight train through Russia. These routes were the most successful side of the BRI in Europe and without them, China will lack a BRI success story in Europe.

"But the war in Ukraine may not only endanger these rail routes, but could also especially affect China's relations with Central and Eastern Europe. This part of Europe, which was quite important for China in the past, as it was seen as a possible gateway to the EU, is now on the verge of a possible NATO conflict with Russia. Thus, the perception that China is aligned with Russia has only proven to these countries that standing firm with the United States and NATO (by banning Huawei and canceling Chinese-backed projects) was the best thing to do. So, it will be increasingly difficult for China to promote projects or investments in this part of the world."

Do you have a question about China's growing footprint in Eurasia? Send it to me at StandishR@rferl.org or reply directly to this e-mail and I'll get it answered by leading experts and policymakers.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Economic Headwinds

China is seeking to avoid taking a hit from sanctions against Russia and has so far been quietly enforcing the U.S.-led measures, former U.S. Treasury official Peter Piatetsky, who is now the CEO of the consultancy Castellum.AI, told me.

What It Means: The United States is China's largest trading partner and Beijing looks to be following the sanctions regime, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi telling his Spanish counterpart, Jose Manuel Albares, on a March 14 phone call that "China is not a party to the crisis, nor does it want the sanctions to affect China."

Piatetsky said that Beijing currently has little to gain from skirting sanctions to help Russia and lots to lose. Although, that doesn't mean that China won't be looking to make some opportunistic moves in the Russian economy.

Alexander Gabuev from the Moscow Carnegie Center told me that "once the Russian economy finds its bottom and it's clear what is permissible and what is not, China is likely to search for more commercial opportunities," particularly in the oil and gas sector.

There are also increasing signs that Beijing is worried about economic blowback brought by the war and sanctions.

The International Monetary Fund warned that China might find it hard to meet its target growth rate of 5.5 percent this year due to fallout from Russia's invasion and the German outlet Der Spiegel reported that the Chinese director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization suppressed publication of a report that warns of a grave hunger crisis in the Middle East and Africa as a result of the war in Ukraine.

2. A U-Turn In Budapest?

April 3 is election day in Hungary and the war in Ukraine has helped shake things up in what was already proving to be a decisive vote as the country's opposition faces its best chance in a decade to unseat incumbent Viktor Orban.

What You Need To Know: My colleague Balint Szalai from RFE/RL's Hungarian Service has broken down the opposition's platform, headlined by Peter Marki-Zay -- a conservative small-town mayor who emerged as a unity candidate chosen by a coalition of opposition parties.

The platform promises a 180-degree turn away from Orban's pro-Russian and pro-Chinese foreign policy of recent years.

Marki-Zay has said before that he plans to reevaluate Chinese-funded projects in the country that were green lit under Orban and the opposition's program mentions the contract for the multibillion-dollar Belgrade-Budapest railway as a specific target.

3. China's Bet On The Balkans

Fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be far and wide and there are signs it is already being felt in Serbia, where Belgrade enjoys close relations with both Moscow and Beijing.

The Takeaway: My colleague Mila Durdevic from RFE/RL Balkan Service reports how China is well-positioned to pick up the slack left in Serbia as the country looks to distance itself from Moscow in the war's aftermath.

Russia is still a cultural, political, and economic force in the Balkan country, but Belgrade has belatedly joined the call for international condemnation of Russia, although Serbia did not join the Western-led sanctions.

"We live in difficult times, in complex times, in times when many partnerships and ties are broken and when we are all under enormous pressure," Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said at the opening of the Chamber of Chinese Companies in Belgrade on March 3.

With Serbia looking to balance its ties with the EU, it may look increasingly to China, which has already become a source of growing investment in the country that comes with far fewer checks and balances than European cash.

Across The Supercontinent

First China, Now Ukraine: Yilisen Aierken, an ethnic Kazakh from Xinjiang who applied for asylum in Ukraine after fleeing China out of fear that he would be sent to an internment camp, completed a difficult journey from Kyiv to Poland. I wrote about it here.

Back To Afghanistan: The Wall Street Journal reports that dozens of Chinese mining companies have descended on Kabul in recent weeks and that Beijing is negotiating with the Taliban to restart mining, as well as gas and oil exploration, at two sites where projects had been put on hold.

Bouncing Back: Despite bottlenecks at the border and continued stringent Chinese coronavirus regulations, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan's trade with China has returned to pre-pandemic levels, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reports.

Stories From Xinjiang: RFE/RL's Kazakh Service spoke with Kanat Beisekeev, the director of a new documentary focusing on ethnic Kazakhs and Uyghurs who have been caught up in China's vast internment-camp system.

Domino Effect: Sanctions against Moscow will bring severe economic fallout for countries in Central Asia that are dependent on trade and investment from Russia.

RFE/RL's Uzbek Service looks at what Uzbekistan is doing to insulate itself from any coming shocks.

One Thing To Watch

China has ordered 51 million people into lockdown amid the worst COVID surge since early 2020.

Chinese authorities recently announced that they'd be locking down tens of millions of people in the entire northeastern province of Jilin and the southern cities of Shenzhen and Dongguan.

The surge is not only looking to set record case numbers, but it marks a major test for China's "COVID zero" approach and could signal a shift toward Beijing adopting a new strategy to deal with the virus.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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Reports that Moscow has asked China for military equipment have raised fresh questions about how far Beijing is willing to go in backing Russia as it faces cutting sanctions and mounting international pressure over its war in Ukraine.

The Russian call for help -- which was reported by the Financial Times and several other major newspapers on March 13, citing U.S. officials -- consists of requests for military hardware and other forms of assistance and has raised concerns that China may help the Kremlin undermine European and Asian efforts to punish it for its February 24 invasion of Ukraine and curb its war against Ukraine.

The officials did not detail the specific equipment that Moscow had requested or the Chinese response, but assistance from Beijing would mark a significant development signaling ardent ties between China and Russia in the face of international condemnation of the Kremlin's invasion and its targeting of civilian areas in Ukraine with rockets and artillery.

The revelations -- which both China and Russia have said are untrue -- come against the backdrop of a series of leaked U.S. intelligence reports surrounding Beijing's relationship with Moscow and in the run-up to Russia's invasion, including that Russian President Vladimir Putin informed Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in early February about his war plans.

The leaked intelligence reports are part of a strategy by Washington to dissuade Beijing from increasing its support of the Kremlin by laying out political, economic, and reputational consequences that China could suffer for backing Moscow more strongly.

"We don't know exactly what Moscow asked for, but this is consistent with a pattern of leaks the U.S. intel community has done over the course of this crisis and those leaks have proven to be credible so far," Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Moscow Carnegie Center, told RFE/RL. "This is aimed at putting pressure on China to say publicly that it won't sell arms or dual-use technology to Russia."

The reports also come as U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan met in Rome with Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign policy official, on March 14. The talks are part of a follow-up conversation to U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi's virtual meeting in November but will also focus on China's support of Moscow and its position toward the war.

How Far Will Beijing Go?

China has tried to portray itself as an impartial actor in the Ukraine crisis and repeatedly called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. European and Ukrainian officials have also called for Beijing to play a role in pressing Putin to negotiate, with China even being mentioned as a potential mediator.

SEE ALSO:

Can China Help Bring Russia To The Negotiating Table?

But China has so far refused to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine and shown few signs that it is willing to abandon the tight cooperation it has built with Moscow in recent years in the face of Western pressure.

While looking to create some official diplomatic distance between it and Russia recently, Beijing has backed Moscow's narrative of the war through its state-controlled domestic media coverage and promoted Russian disinformation campaigns abroad, including a debunked claim that the United States is developing biological weapons in Ukraine.

SEE ALSO:

China's Censorship, Propaganda Push Russian Version Of The War In Ukraine

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on March 14 that reports that Moscow had asked for military equipment for its campaign in Ukraine were "disinformation" and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also denied them, saying Russia had the "self-sufficient potential to continue the [military] operation."

Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, says that given the extent of China-Russia ties, it's plausible for Beijing to assist Moscow with such a request, but a lot depends on how much of a cost China is willing to pay for such support and what kind of "collateral damage to its reputation" such a move could bring.

"The [United States] is saying with these leaks that they are watching closely and will expose any moves [from Beijing to Moscow] and attach a cost to them," Small told RFE/RL. "That's not something the Chinese have had to deal with before and it's creating more pressure."

During comments to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee on March 8, CIA Director William Burns hinted at how increasingly brutal tactics against Ukraine have created new tensions within the China-Russia relationship.

"I think [Beijing is] unsettled by the reputational damage that can come with their close association with President Putin," Burns said. "I think they're a little unsettled about the impact [the war has] on the global economy. I think they're a little bit unsettled by the way in which [Putin] has driven the Europeans and the Americans much closer together."

Sullivan has also pointed toward some potential areas of strain between Beijing and Moscow, when discussing earlier leaked reports that Xi was briefed on Russia's plans for Ukraine, although perhaps not informed about the wider scope of the invasion.

"China, in fact, was aware before the invasion took place that [Putin] was planning something, [but] they may not have understood the full extent of it," Sullivan told CNN on March 13. "Because it's very possible that Putin lied to them the same way that he lied to Europeans and others."

Complicated Ties

The U.S.-China talks in Rome are unlikely to yield anything concrete and it's uncertain if the Americans' pressure campaign will succeed in limiting Chinese support for Russia as its economy is in free fall and its military assault has faced stiff Ukrainian resistance.

"What benefit does China have at the moment to throw the Russians under the bus?" Raffaello Pantucci of London's Royal United Services Institute told RFE/RL. "Moscow may not look as strong as it did before the invasion, but it's still on China's side and a powerful actor. Given the more hostile mood in the West towards Beijing, there's little upside right now for China to abandon Russia."

In Rome, Sullivan intends to warn Yang about any future efforts from China to bolster Moscow's war or undercut Ukraine, the United States, and their partners. "We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world," he said in the CNN interview.

Beyond the reported request for military equipment, China could also offer some form of economic relief to Russia.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on March 13 that sanctions had deprived Moscow of access to $300 billion of its $640 billion in gold and foreign-exchange reserves. He added that there was international pressure on Beijing -- predominantly from its largest trading partner, the United States -- to shut off more.

While Xi has expressed concern and frustration about the impact of sanctions on global finance and the Chinese economy, Beijing is treading cautiously and so far is respecting sanctions against Russia.

SEE ALSO:

Why China Won't Rescue Russia's Flailing Economy

But the Carnegie Center's Gabuev says to expect Beijing to be as active in the Russian economy as it can be while still respecting the sanctions regime.

The oil and gas sector, which so far has not been hit, is an area of interest for China, but Beijing will likely wait for the Russian economy to continue to decline and then make deals that "serve China's economic interests and frame them as assistance."

"Once the Russian economy finds its bottom and it's clear what is permissible and what is not, China is likely to search for more commercial opportunities [in Russia]," Gabuev said.