China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Powered Down In Mongolia

Mongolia's government voted not to to include the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline that connects Russia to China through its territory in its spending plans for the next four years, a sign that the megaproject may be on hold.

Finding Perspective: Mongolia's new coalition government voted on August 16 for its action program for its four-year term and notably did not include the 2,594-kilometer pipeline, meaning they don't expect the ambitious project to begin construction during that span.

While the bulk of the energy project rests between Beijing and Moscow reaching an agreement, Mongolia would need to be involved in construction and transmission fee negotiations.

Power of Siberia-2, which is a joint project between the China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom, would take at least five years to build and would look to bring gas from the huge Yamal Peninsula reserves in western Siberia to China.

Much of these reserves were originally intended to be sold to the European Union, but Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has left Moscow looking for a new market in China, the world's largest consumer of natural gas.

But Beijing currently has no particular incentive to agree to the new pipeline, and there have been ongoing disputes and tough negotiations between China and Russia over price and supply levels.

In June, the Financial Times newspaper, citing "people familiar with the matter," reported that talks are frozen over what Russia sees as China's unreasonable demands.

What's Next? The decision by Mongolia's government is seen by some analysts as the latest sign that the pipeline is facing setbacks.

"It's premature to declare the project over, but the omission signals significant challenges," Aleksei Chigadaev, a China expert and former visiting lecturer at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told me.

Moscow's bargaining power with its more economically powerful neighbor has weakened over the course of the war in Ukraine, and questions remain over Gazprom's ability to underwrite such a complicated venture.

The natural gas pipeline, which would bring gas to northern China, is also uncertain because it faces competition from China's growing shift toward renewable energy and Beijing's wider strategy to avoid being too dependent on any one exporter.

"North China's access to [global] liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets is expanding, and global LNG markets will likely remain oversupplied for the rest of the decade," Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told me.

"Additionally, north China can squeeze out incremental volumes from domestic production and the existing lines of the Central Asia-to-China [pipeline]."

Why It Matters: Approval for the pipeline would transform Gazprom's current fortunes by tying it further to a massive consumer market, but Beijing's tough stance also underscores how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left President Vladimir Putin lacking leverage.

Concluding a deal on a project as expansive as Power of Siberia-2 is incredibly complex, but China clearly believes it is holding better cards.

Beijing also has alternatives to pursue. Xi has also offered support for the construction of the so-called Line D pipeline, which would be the fourth to bring Turkmen gas to China.

As Chigadaev explains, the Turkmen pipeline offers some clear advantages.

"The pipeline will be significantly shorter than the Russian one, and its construction will be entirely controlled by China, including investments, the construction process, and operations," he said. "Negotiating with Turkmenistan's political leadership is also easier -- it has an even higher level of authoritarianism than Russia and a simpler economy."

Still, as Webster notes, Power of Siberia-2 and Line-D feed different parts of China and don't necessarily cancel the other out, although "China's future and even current natural gas demand is a big analytical blind spot."

"Line D is believed to service southern China, which would place it in only indirect competition with Power of Siberia-2, which would deliver gas to customers in northern China," he said. "Line D is more likely to compete against American and Australian LNG. But the routes of Line D and Power of Siberia-2 aren't finalized yet. Things could change."

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Li Qiang In Russia and Belarus

Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrived on August 20 in Moscow on a three-day official visit where he is expected to hold talks with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin and Putin.

The Details: The visit will focus on bilateral ties and economic cooperation between China and Russia as part of a regular diplomatic track created for both countries' prime ministers.

Ahead of the visit, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Li planned to "exchange in-depth views on practical cooperation in bilateral relations and issues of common concern" in talks with Mishustin.

Neither the Chinese or Russian side mentioned the war in Ukraine in their previews, but Li's trip is the first from a Chinese official since Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory.

Li will then depart Moscow for Belarus, where he'll meet with Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko and strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Belarus relies heavily on Russia for political and financial support but has also looked to balance that dependence with closer ties with China.

In July, Belarus became the 10th member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and also hosted China for military exercises in the western part of the country, some 5 kilometers from the Polish border.

2. Kazakhstan's Nuclear Energy Bid

Kazakh officials held their 20th public discussion in the country about building a new nuclear power plant on August 20, my colleague Asemgul Mukhitkyzy from RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reports.

What You Need To Know: The most recent public forum was held in the capital, Astana, and came before a possible national referendum on this issue.

The discussion tour includes officials and nuclear energy experts and are partly held as part of an effort to raise public awareness, dispel myths and misinformation about nuclear power, and quell any safety or environmental concerns from having another plant in the country.

Kazakh officials have not yet said who will be building the plant, but the government is reportedly considering proposals from French, South Korean, Chinese, and Russian companies.

3. Diluting Tajikistan's China Debt

Tajik Deputy Finance Minister Yusuf Majidi says China's share of Tajikistan's external debt is decreasing each year, RFE/RL's Tajik Service reports.

What It Means: Speaking at a recent press conference, Majidi said Tajikistan's total debt owed to China is $1.5 billion and Dushanbe has paid back $610 million already.

He added this leaves Tajikistan's remaining debt owed at around $850-890 million and the government has been taking steps to limit its debt exposure.

"China's share in the structure of Tajikistan's external debt is decreasing. After 2018, we have only received grants from China," Majidi explained to reporters.

Tajikistan's growing financial dependence on China has been a major source of criticism for the Tajik government, with China owning half of the country's foreign debt and being its main source of external investment.

Added to those financial concerns, all of the terms of loan contracts agreed to with China have not been made public and have sparked fears that Tajikistan's inability to repay its loans could lead to offering land or other concessions in exchange for debt relief.

According to the Finance Ministry, the grace period for a number of loans owed to China's Export-Import Bank will stop at the end of 2025 and Dushanbe will need to pay off a percentage of its Chinese-owned debt.

Across The Supercontinent

Yuan Listed: In a move designed to boost cross-border trade with China, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan announced it will begin publishing the official exchange rate of the yuan against the Kyrgyz som starting on September 1.

Wheat Woes: Kazakhstan has suspended wheat exports to China for an undetermined period following unilateral tariff changes by Beijing, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture said in an August 7 statement.

The Not 'For You Page': TikTok's algorithm promotes the Chinese government's narratives on hot-button issues such as Tibet, Taiwan, and the Uyghurs while suppressing content critical of Beijing, a new study has found.

A Dawn Raid And A Ruling: Legal claims brought by the Chinese firm Nuctech that European Commission raids in April to search for evidence of state subsidies were illegal have been thrown out by a court in Luxembourg.

Nuctech is a maker of body and baggage scanners for airports and ports and they sued the commission in June over the raids being unlawful. The ruling by the court could have a wider effect on Chinese businesses in Europe and the case is the most high-profile use of the European Commission using its foreign subsidies regulation.

One Thing To Watch

Azerbaijan officially applied to become a member of BRICS, the group of emerging-market nations led by China and Russia that also includes Brazil, India, and South Africa as founding members.

The country's Foreign Ministry made the announcement on August 20. Azerbaijan is the latest applicant to BRICS, which has consisted of just five members for years until it expanded with the inclusion of Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt in January.

The development also comes after Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership agreement with China on July 3 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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BUCHAREST -- It has been a busy six months for the Chinese ambassador to Romania.

Among the institutions that Han Chunlin has visited during his travels around Romania, the envoy made stops at two of Romania's top medical universities to promote one of his government’s more unassuming ways to build cultural influence abroad: traditional Chinese medicine.

While the details of the closed-door discussions between the ambassador and representatives of these universities are not fully known, the diplomatic outreach by Han and the Chinese Embassy in Bucharest is achieving results in Romania.

Both the Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy in Bucharest (UMF Bucharest) and the Grigore T. Popa University of Medicine and Pharmacy In Iasi (UMF Iasi), which are home to some of Romania’s most respected medical programs, have been organizing traditional Chinese medicine events for years for staff and students, as well as paid study trips to China, and both universities offer courses on it, with UMF Iasi set to launch such classes in the fall.

Other medical programs at Romanian universities, such as Transylvania University of Brasov and Vasile Goldis Western University of Arad have also embraced traditional Chinese medicine in their curriculum, with Brasov offering a specialized master’s degree and Arad operating a traditional Chinese medicine center on campus.

The inroads made by the steady engagement of Chinese officials marks a success story for Beijing’s official efforts to strengthen its soft power abroad and promote traditional Chinese medicine, which centers around practices like acupuncture, tai chi, and the use of herbal remedies to treat health problems.

In Romania, this push for influence in the medical field has also found fertile ground amid decades of funding cuts, low pay for doctors, and other problems that have undermined public trust in the national health-care service and left the country with one of the European Union’s lowest ranked systems.

“The health system is discredited and when you have a certain mistrust the public attitude toward the generally accepted medical treatments becomes tied to the shortcomings of the broader medical system,” Stefan Popescu, a former state secretary at the Romanian Foreign Ministry, told RFE/RL.

“China’s promotion of traditional Chinese medicine should be seen as part of a broader constellation of initiatives that [Beijing] uses to deepen cooperation with countries,” Popescu said. “It also highlights Chinese traditions in a way that puts them in opposition to the West.”

In April, UMF Iasi became the first Romanian medical university to host a Confucius Institute, a Chinese cultural-education center that is administered by an organization under the purview of China’s Education Ministry. The stated aim of the centers is to promote Chinese language and culture, but they’ve also faced criticism over attempts to stifle academic freedom and using improper influence on teaching and research.

Speaking at the launch of the Confucius Institute in April, UMF Iasi Rector Viorel Scripcariu said that, in addition to teaching Chinese, the center could also help integrate and expand “professional skills training activities in the field of traditional Chinese medicine,” a sentiment that was also shared by Han in his public comments.

Following the institute’s inauguration, Han met that same month with Viorel Jinga, the rector of UMF Bucharest, where the two discussed “the future of collaboration in traditional Chinese medicine,” according to a written response provided to RFE/RL from Jinga’s office.

The Chinese Embassy in Bucharest did not reply to RFE/RL’s request for comment about the meetings or its efforts to promote traditional Chinese medicine in the country.

'A National Treasure’

While the efforts of Chinese diplomats in Romania show some of the latest attempts to promote traditional medicine abroad, its importance to Chinese foreign policy was unveiled in Beijing nearly eight years ago.

Traditional Chinese medicine has been part of the country’s foreign medical aid for decades, but its standing has been boosted under the tenure of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who often refers to the collection of practices that date back thousands of years as a “national treasure” in his public speeches.

Under Xi, Beijing launched a global campaign in 2016 that has since gathered pace with an official white paper and a law on traditional Chinese medicine aimed at promoting it worldwide.

The effort received a major boost in 2019 when the World Health Organization (WHO) included traditional Chinese medicine in its influential global diagnostic compendium, the International Classification of Diseases -- a move that was criticized as anti-scientific and potentially harmful by many, including influential industry publications such as Scientific American and Nature, who said there was little evidence that these practices provided effective treatment.

Traditional Chinese medicine has been lumped into important Chinese global projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Beijing has launched a series of scholarships to sponsor foreign students to study the discipline in China. It also featured prominently in China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with its practices recommended domestically as part of a treatment plan for the virus. Traditional Chinese pharmaceuticals were also included in foreign aid provided during the pandemic.

The promotion of traditional Chinese medicine also has a commercial dimension to it -- including an expanding multibillion-dollar market inside China and a growing international one -- which adds extra impetus to its ongoing health diplomacy around the world.

“China’s strategy [with traditional Chinese medicine] has the potential to be much more effective than other soft power efforts because it is high-visibility and medicine is needed everywhere in the world,” Popescu said.

Inroads At UMF Iasi

The new Confucius Institute in Iasi is the fifth such center in Romania and it aims to become a platform for the promotion of Chinese culture in the eastern Romanian city and across the country.

Reaching this point is the result of years of work by Scripcaru, the rector of UMF Iasi, who has been courting Chinese cooperation since as early as 2019, when he announced a partnership agreement with the Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, which he said would be a launching pad for traditional Chinese medicine at the university.

“We hope to bring to UMF Iasi the spirit of traditional Chinese medicine, which not only involves medicine, but also the understanding of the culture of one of the most valuable civilizations in the world,” Scripcaru said in a statement then.

Scripcaru has continued to forge ahead and has worked closely with Chinese officials over the years. A few days before the opening of the Confucius Institute in April, UMF Iasi concluded another agreement with the Kunming University of Medicine in southern China, which provides for “bilateral cooperation in the field of education and research.”

In response to questions from RFE/RL, Scripcaru said the Confucius Institute is part of the process of “internationalizing the university” and that the expansion of new courses on traditional Chinese medicine are the result of guidance from the World Federation for Medical Education, an NGO focused on the training and education of doctors worldwide, which advised the university to adopt the discipline as part of its alternative-medicine curriculum.

“By integrating traditional Chinese medicine into the curriculum, UMF Iasi can offer students a more diverse knowledge of global medical practices. Also, over time, more than 250 students have expressed their interest in learning the Chinese language and learning about Chinese culture,” Scripcaru's office said in a written statement to RFE/RL.

“The decision to open the Confucius Institute and to introduce an optional course in traditional Chinese medicine was taken solely out of the desire to enrich the educational offer and expand the academic horizons of our students and researchers,” the statement continued.

The campaign to promote traditional Chinese medicine by UMF Iasi continued in June 2024 when a conference -- the first major event under the auspices of the new Confucius Institute -- was held at the university.

But the actual organization of the event was handled by the Romanian Society of Traditional Chinese Medicine (SRMTC). The SRMTC, which was founded in 2008 and claims to have 83 members no longer has, as of 2018, the legal right to organize educational events such as the June congress in Iasi.

According to Romanian law, a medical conference falls under the category of “continuing medical education” and only providers accredited by the College of Physicians can organize such events.

SRMTC has not been on this list since 2018 when the College of Physicians decided to drastically limit how “alternative medicine practitioners” can offer their services.

In response to questions from RFE/RL, SRMTC President Angela Tudor defended hosting the event, saying that UMF Iasi was the main organizer of the conference.

Tudor added that the conference was attended by professors from universities in France, Italy, and the United States where traditional Chinese medicine is also taught as part of the curriculum.

“Traditional Chinese medicine has nothing to do with politics. It is practiced and studied on all continents as an important part of medicine,” Tudor said. “We are doctors and we study everything that can make us more competent in the fight against diseases.”

A Flagship In Bucharest And Beyond

While the program at UMF Iasi is a recent development, courses on traditional Chinese medicine have existed on an optional basis at UMF Bucharest for years.

In a statement provided to RFE/RL, a spokesperson from the rector’s office said that its alternative medicine program is in accordance with international guidelines and is reviewed and evaluated annually.

Still, the Chinese Embassy in Bucharest is actively involved with the university. On May 16, Han visited the campus and met with Jinga, the UMF Bucharest rector, where they discussed “future collaboration in the field of traditional Chinese medicine,” according to a press release.

A spokesperson from the rector’s office told RFE/RL that talks between Han and Jinga in April have already led to a new exchange program sponsored by China’s Commerce Ministry that sent two doctors from UMF Bucharest to China for a specialized traditional Chinese medicine course in July.

“The purpose of this course was to provide participants with a thorough understanding of the fundamental principles of traditional Chinese medicine,” the rector’s office said.

Other medical universities across the country have also embraced traditional Chinese medicine in recent years.

The central Romanian Transylvania University of Brasov offers what it says is a one of a kind master’s degree in Central and Eastern Europe and even began offering courses in English through a partnership with the University of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Beijing.

Vasile Goldis Western University of Arad, in the western part of the country, is a private institution that hosts Romania’s first center for traditional Chinese medicine, where students can practice under the supervision of doctors from China, take Chinese-language courses, and receive a degree recognized by the Chinese government.

The press offices of Transylvania University and Vasile Goldis Western University did not respond to RFE/RL’s inquiries about their traditional Chinese medicine programs.

Written by Reid Standish in Prague based on reporting by RFE/RL Romanian Service Senior Correspondent Ionut Benea in Bucharest.