China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

The Africa Model

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is rolling out the red carpet for African leaders this week at a high-level summit in Beijing as China looks to deepen ties with the resource-rich continent that it has furnished with billions in loans for infrastructure and development projects.

But what kind of lessons does the experience of African countries hold for other regions where China has also become a political and economic force?

Finding Perspective: Beijing has said the September 4-6 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit will be its largest diplomatic event since the COVID-19 pandemic, with leaders and other delegates from every African state except Eswatini.

China has increasingly expanded ties with African countries in the past decade and Beijing has become the continent's largest bilateral lender, investor, and trade partner.

This has seen China furnish governments with billions of dollars in loans that have helped build much-needed infrastructure and bring economic growth, but also sometimes stoked controversy by saddling countries with huge debts.

FOCAC is Beijing's main forum for engaging with Africa and this year's gathering will tackle issues ranging from health-care cooperation to debt relief to securing the rights for critical minerals.

African leaders are looking for more balanced trade and continued investments from China, while Beijing is expected to push its green technologies products like electric vehicles (EVs) and its solar industry, especially amid Western curbs on those exports.

A New Era: As Alex Vines, the Africa research director at Chatham House, told me, the green-technology push isn't a surprise and has buy-in from both sides.

"Energy provision is key for Africa's development trajectory, and so investing in renewables will be welcomed," he said.

Chinese investment in Africa peaked around 2016 and Chinese loans to African governments have since declined significantly. The old China model of offering loans for large infrastructure projects and rapid industrialization has not quite disappeared, but certainly lost steam amid China's slowing economy and the difficulty some African countries have had in repaying loans.

As Beijing is eyeing new markets for its renewables sector, Africa is a logical target. It's a young and fast-growing continent that, according to the International Monetary Fund, contains nine of the world's 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024 and China sees it as a vital market for its products and its own economic growth.

And while there are petro-states in Africa, many countries deal with energy insecurity and are eager for the more affordable products like Chinese-made smartphones and EVs that have seen their quality dramatically increase in recent years.

Why It Matters: If any lessons can be drawn from Africa's trajectory with China for other regions around the world, it's that local governments are just as influential in this process as Beijing.

It can be easy to view everything through the lens of China's global ambitions, which are very real, but they only tell part of the story.

Debt owed to China is a major factor on the continent, and some African countries have large Chinese loans that they're struggling to repay.

But Vines says that their situations can't be entirely blamed on Chinese loans. Countries like Kenya and Zambia have poorly managed their debt to all creditors, not only China, while others have managed to navigate their Chinese debt arrangements without risk or incident.

Added to that, African countries know they are becoming more attractive to multiple outside powers and using this dynamic to have more room to balance their ties with partners beyond China and the West, like Russia, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey.

"Local agency needs to be strengthened more robustly," Mandira Bagwandeen, an expert on China's ties to Africa and a lecturer at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, told me.

"It's not China's responsibility to be sure that whatever deal they strike is in the local country's interest. It's the responsibility of African officials and it's ultimately up to them to make sure that it works for their country."

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. Middle Corridor Chokepoint

Kazakhstan announced on September 2 that it will temporarily stop accepting containers heading to China through its Dostyk border crossing due to inadequate infrastructure to process the cargo.

The Details: The news is something of a positive sign for those cheerleading the viability of the so-called Middle Corridor trade route that runs through the Caucasus and Central Asia and connects to China.

The press release said that the infrastructure at the border crossing can't handle the large volumes of freight now going east. At the time of the announcement, there were 55 trains waiting in Kazakhstan to cross into China.

Dostyk is one of two main rail crossings between Kazakhstan and China. The other crossing, Khorgos, was built as one of China's key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments in Central Asia.

2. BYD's Big Uzbek Plans

Chinese electric car production is gearing up in Uzbekistan and the Central Asian news site Vlast has a good look at where things stand today.

What It Means: The factory was opened in late June by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev and will be a joint venture with state-owned UzAuto.

BYD pledged a $160 million investment in the production line, which is poised to put around 50,000 cars to market in its first phase, with an outlook of up to 500,000 cars. As the factory develops and expands, the company also plans to grow its China-trained local workforce from 1,200 to 10,000.

The flagship factory is the first large-scale investment of its kind in Central Asia and could be used as a template to be replicated elsewhere in Central Asia as China looks to build up the EV market across the region with its offering of affordable and increasingly reliable options.

As another interesting wrinkle, Vlast reports that "most of the electric cars that the production lines of [Central Asia] will churn out seem to be earmarked for export, with Russia being one of the main destination markets."

3. A Pakistani Great Firewall?

Millions of Pakistanis have for weeks experienced slow Internet connections and problems with accessing social media platforms.

And local activists say it's because Pakistani authorities are installing a Chinese-style national Internet firewall aimed at exerting more control over the online space and crushing dissent, my colleague Abubakar Siddique reports.

What You Need To Know: Islamabad has denied allegations that it is behind the Internet slowdown, which has disrupted businesses and triggered widespread complaints in the South Asian country of some 240 million.

Pakistanis have been unable to promptly send e-mails or use the messaging application WhatsApp, which is used by tens of millions of people. Businesses and entrepreneurs say the Internet slowdown has disrupted their daily work.

For weeks, Islamabad refused to comment, but then officials provided some contradictory remarks about the reason behind the disruptions.

Information Technology and Telecommunication Minister Shaza Fatima Khawaja admitted on August 15 that the government was tinkering with the Internet, revealing that it was "upgrading a web-management system" it had previously installed.

Then on August 21, Hafeezur Rehman, the chairman of the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), claimed that a faulty undersea Internet cable was to blame.

Multiple digital-rights groups inside the country have accused the government of implementing new measures to monitor and regulate content and social media platforms in order to increase surveillance and stifle dissent, especially criticism of the country's all-powerful military.

The civilian government is backed by the military and the PTA is overseen by a retired general.

The alleged implementation of the firewall comes as Pakistan's military, which has an oversized role in the country's domestic and foreign affairs, says it is battling "digital terrorism."

Across The Supercontinent

Taipei's Rhetorical Counter: Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has challenged China's claim over the self-ruled island by suggesting in recent comments that if China is truly concerned about its territorial integrity then it should also seek to reclaim the land it ceded to Russia in the 19th century.

"If China wants to annex Taiwan.... It's not for the sake of territorial integrity. If it is really for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn't China take back Russia?" Lai said during a TV interview.

Kazakh Nuclear Referendum: Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev announced that the country will hold a national referendum on October 6 on whether to build a new nuclear power plant, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reports.

According to public statements by the government, companies from China, France, Russia, and South Korea are all in the running to carry out the project if it gets enough support at the ballot box.

New Semiconductor Investment: Taiwan is planning to team up with the Czech government to build a semiconductor cluster in the Czech Republic, Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu said on August 30 during a press conference at the annual Globsec security conference in Prague.

Lining Up For BRICS : Bloomberg reports that Turkey has formally asked to join the BRICS group of emerging-market countries.

One Thing To Watch

A new investigation from The Washington Post found that Chinese diplomats and pro-China diaspora groups based in the United States organized demonstrations in San Francisco that harassed and silenced protesters opposed to Beijing's policies during Xi's visit to the city in November 2023.

The investigation around the events in San Francisco is another key piece of evidence that helps illustrate how the Chinese Communist Party takes steps to stifle anti-government dissent abroad, particularly in countries with large Chinese diasporas.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Shuttle Diplomacy, Sullivan, And Sanctions

Beijing called recent U.S. sanctions on its companies over the Ukraine war “illegal and unilateral” and “not based on facts,” as White House national-security adviser Jake Sullivan arrived in China for several days of high-level talks.

Here’s what’s going on.

Finding Perspective: Washington has repeatedly warned Beijing over its support for Russia's defense industrial base and has already issued hundreds of sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow's ability to exploit certain technologies for military purposes.

The United States imposed sanctions on more than 400 entities and individuals for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine on August 23, including Chinese firms that U.S. officials believe are helping Moscow skirt Western sanctions and build up its military.

One hundred and twenty-three entities were also added to the U.S. export control list known as the Entity List, which forces suppliers to obtain licenses before shipping to targeted companies. Among those added in this most recent batch, 63 entities were based in Russia and 42 in China.

On August 27, ahead of Sullivan’s arrival that same day, Li Hui, China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, who has done four rounds of shuttle diplomacy, criticized the sanctions at a briefing for diplomats in Beijing after the latest round of meetings with officials from Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa.

China has been striving to present itself as a party that is actively looking for a solution to the war in Ukraine, despite skipping a key peace conference in Switzerland this June.

After past rounds of talks led by Li in the spring, Beijing put forward proposals on supporting the exchange of prisoners of war, opposing the use of nuclear and biological weapons, and opposing armed attacks on civilian nuclear facilities, as well as an outline for principles to end the war in February 2023.

Sullivan In China: Sullivan's trip comes at a time of high tensions in the U.S.-China relationship, with issues like Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the South China Sea flaring up.

The trip is Sullivan’s fifth meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is also the director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office. As the Financial Times recently reported, both officials have been engaged in secret backchannel talks since 2023 following a low point in ties after an incident with a Chinese spy balloon flying over the United States.

The two officials are expected to discuss a litany of issues in Beijing, including tensions in the South China Sea, China’s growing cooperation with Russia, and conflict in the Middle East.

Why It Matters: Talks between Washington and Beijing are never easy and both sides have lots to talk about, but Russia and the war in Ukraine are high on the agenda.

When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing in April, he warned that Washington would act if China did not stop supplying Russia with microchips and machine parts to build weapons used in Ukraine.

He also accused his Chinese counterparts of “helping to fuel the biggest threat” to European security since the Cold War.

Since then, Chinese companies have been hit with a raft of measures and the threat of further secondary sanctions on other Chinese entities have led to Chinese banks tightening their restrictions on payments from Russia.

Both Sullivan and Wang are hoping to set up a framework for stable relations between their two governments despite their laundry list of issues.

During comments about U.S.-China relations in January at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Sullivan said that he and Wang continued to have “direct” conversations on leading issues, including Ukraine and Russia.

“"Both of us left feeling that we didn’t agree or see eye-to-eye on everything but that there was a lot of work to carry forward,” Sullivan said.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. China And Belarus Sign Free Trade Deal

Belarus announced that it will sign a free trade deal with China for services and investment, as well as a host of other agreements to strengthen cooperation in security, energy, and finance.

The Details: The new agreements come after a visit from Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Minsk. A signing ceremony took place on August 22, but the free trade deal was announced on August 23 when both sides released a joint statement from the visit.

Li’s trip, which came after a multiday visit to Moscow, centered heavily on trade and the economy. Sanctions-hit Belarus still relies heavily on Moscow for political and financial support, but has also looked to balance that dependence with closer ties with Beijing.

China was once an active investor in Belarus for infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology ventures, Beijing had not offered a new project or loan to Minsk since 2019 and seemed to have stepped back from the country amid its domestic crisis, which cut Lukashenka off politically from the European Union and made him a less appealing economic partner for Beijing.

The new agreements set the stage to provide something of a financial lifeline for Belarus as it grapples with a sluggish economy, but details also remain light so far and may face roadblocks in their implementation.

2. Azerbaijan's New Balancing Act With China

Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork to boost its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is looking to China for help, as I reported here for RFE/RL.

What It Means: In just two months, Baku's ties with Beijing have quickly moved forward as the oil-rich country has inched closer politically and economically through a series of agreements that could boost China's presence in the region and open the door to newfound Chinese investment into Azerbaijan.

This began in July when they upgraded bilateral ties through a new strategic partnership and again a few weeks later when Baku applied to upgrade its status within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from dialogue partner to observer, setting the stage to potentially become a full member.

Then on August 20, Azerbaijan said it had applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia that also includes Brazil, India, and South Africa as founding members.

For Azerbaijan, these moves should be seen within the context of Baku looking to capitalize on newfound interest in trade across Eurasia, where it sits at the center, and also its desire to hedge its foreign affairs by diversifying its ties with a variety of other countries. Russia and Turkey have been the traditional external players, along with the European Union, but China adds more room for Baku to use for balance.

The so-called Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect China to the European Union, has seen billions of dollars worth in investments and Azerbaijan is looking to attract more from China.

Baku is also looking to expand its ties with China in other areas, from further deals in green energy as Azerbaijan tries to plan for a future where it is less dependent on fossil-fuel exports to advanced technology and military purchases.

In addition to the Middle Corridor, Baku is also at the intersection of the International North–South Transport Corridor that flows south from Russia to Azerbaijan and then aims to connect to Iran and India.

"If Baku previously was able to use its energy resources [as leverage] in its relations with the West, international trade corridors are also now tools with strategic importance in Azerbaijan's foreign policy,” Nurlan Aliyev, a lecturer at the University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, told me.

3. 'I Never Saw Any Of Them Speak Out’

Public discussion around the experiences of ethnic Kazakhs in neighboring Xinjiang has become muted inside Kazakhstan after years of pressure on activists that has also led to relatives and survivors of the internment system afraid to share their stories.

My colleagues Asemgul Mukhitqyzy and Chris Rickleton spoke with a Kazakh journalist who recently tried to investigate the plight of ethnic Kazakhs in China.

What You Need To Know: Zhaqsylyq Qazymuratuly, the Kazakh journalist who works for the newspaper Zhas Alash, published an article in late July on what the outlet said were 22 members of the ethnic Kazakh intelligentsia currently languishing behind bars in China.

While Kazakhstan was once a hotbed of activism and public awareness when arrests first started taking place in Xinjiang, that largely tapered off following a crackdown on activist leaders.

In this respect, the recent article marks a noteworthy effort to restart the conversation in the country, but as Qazymuratuly told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, those who have been reunited with relatives in Kazakhstan in the past couple of years -- sometimes after a long separation -- are in no hurry to talk about their experiences.

Adding to that, the Kazakh-based relatives of the detainees that the article focused on are also increasingly reluctant to say anything about their cases.

“All of them refused to comment. The reason is obvious. Advocacy could worsen the situation for their relatives in detention,” Qazymuratuly said.

Across The Supercontinent

Lending Evolution: Amid accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” Chinese lending practices are often under the microscope. In Central Asia, however, Chinese financial players are adapting to use different lending models, Nargiza Muratalieva writes for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Scientists Targeted: The Uyghur rights organization Uyghur Hjelp has documented more than 200 cases of Uyghur scientists and other science professionals being imprisoned in China.

New Strategy: U.S. President Joe Biden has approved a new nuclear strategy to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea, according to reporting by The New York Times.

Coal In Kyrgyzstan: The Kyrgyz government will introduce new regulations meant to prevent coal prices from rising in the country, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reports.

The price controls will take effect for 90 days starting on September 15 and come amid a coal shortage that could spike prices. Kyrgyz authorities have said that they plan to increase coal mining in the country and also increase imports from neighboring China.

One Thing To Watch

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that 48,000 Chinese students are studying in Russia in the 2023-2024 academic year, an increase of almost 10,000 students compared to the previous year.

Golikova also said that more than 16,000 Russian students were studying in Chinese universities.

The rising figures are the fruits of multiple new agreements in recent years between Beijing and Moscow to increase the number of their students at each other’s universities at a time when the numbers of Chinese and Russian students studying in the United States is declining.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.