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China In Eurasia

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) with U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan in Beijing on August 27.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) with U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan in Beijing on August 27.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Shuttle Diplomacy, Sullivan, And Sanctions

Beijing called recent U.S. sanctions on its companies over the Ukraine war “illegal and unilateral” and “not based on facts,” as White House national-security adviser Jake Sullivan arrived in China for several days of high-level talks.

Here’s what’s going on.

Finding Perspective: Washington has repeatedly warned Beijing over its support for Russia's defense industrial base and has already issued hundreds of sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow's ability to exploit certain technologies for military purposes.

The United States imposed sanctions on more than 400 entities and individuals for supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine on August 23, including Chinese firms that U.S. officials believe are helping Moscow skirt Western sanctions and build up its military.

One hundred and twenty-three entities were also added to the U.S. export control list known as the Entity List, which forces suppliers to obtain licenses before shipping to targeted companies. Among those added in this most recent batch, 63 entities were based in Russia and 42 in China.

On August 27, ahead of Sullivan’s arrival that same day, Li Hui, China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, who has done four rounds of shuttle diplomacy, criticized the sanctions at a briefing for diplomats in Beijing after the latest round of meetings with officials from Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa.

China has been striving to present itself as a party that is actively looking for a solution to the war in Ukraine, despite skipping a key peace conference in Switzerland this June.

After past rounds of talks led by Li in the spring, Beijing put forward proposals on supporting the exchange of prisoners of war, opposing the use of nuclear and biological weapons, and opposing armed attacks on civilian nuclear facilities, as well as an outline for principles to end the war in February 2023.

Sullivan In China: Sullivan's trip comes at a time of high tensions in the U.S.-China relationship, with issues like Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the South China Sea flaring up.

The trip is Sullivan’s fifth meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is also the director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission Office. As the Financial Times recently reported, both officials have been engaged in secret backchannel talks since 2023 following a low point in ties after an incident with a Chinese spy balloon flying over the United States.

The two officials are expected to discuss a litany of issues in Beijing, including tensions in the South China Sea, China’s growing cooperation with Russia, and conflict in the Middle East.

Why It Matters: Talks between Washington and Beijing are never easy and both sides have lots to talk about, but Russia and the war in Ukraine are high on the agenda.

When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing in April, he warned that Washington would act if China did not stop supplying Russia with microchips and machine parts to build weapons used in Ukraine.

He also accused his Chinese counterparts of “helping to fuel the biggest threat” to European security since the Cold War.

Since then, Chinese companies have been hit with a raft of measures and the threat of further secondary sanctions on other Chinese entities have led to Chinese banks tightening their restrictions on payments from Russia.

Both Sullivan and Wang are hoping to set up a framework for stable relations between their two governments despite their laundry list of issues.

During comments about U.S.-China relations in January at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Sullivan said that he and Wang continued to have “direct” conversations on leading issues, including Ukraine and Russia.

“"Both of us left feeling that we didn’t agree or see eye-to-eye on everything but that there was a lot of work to carry forward,” Sullivan said.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. China And Belarus Sign Free Trade Deal

Belarus announced that it will sign a free trade deal with China for services and investment, as well as a host of other agreements to strengthen cooperation in security, energy, and finance.

The Details: The new agreements come after a visit from Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Minsk. A signing ceremony took place on August 22, but the free trade deal was announced on August 23 when both sides released a joint statement from the visit.

Li’s trip, which came after a multiday visit to Moscow, centered heavily on trade and the economy. Sanctions-hit Belarus still relies heavily on Moscow for political and financial support, but has also looked to balance that dependence with closer ties with Beijing.

China was once an active investor in Belarus for infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology ventures, Beijing had not offered a new project or loan to Minsk since 2019 and seemed to have stepped back from the country amid its domestic crisis, which cut Lukashenka off politically from the European Union and made him a less appealing economic partner for Beijing.

The new agreements set the stage to provide something of a financial lifeline for Belarus as it grapples with a sluggish economy, but details also remain light so far and may face roadblocks in their implementation.

2. Azerbaijan's New Balancing Act With China

Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork to boost its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is looking to China for help, as I reported here for RFE/RL.

What It Means: In just two months, Baku's ties with Beijing have quickly moved forward as the oil-rich country has inched closer politically and economically through a series of agreements that could boost China's presence in the region and open the door to newfound Chinese investment into Azerbaijan.

This began in July when they upgraded bilateral ties through a new strategic partnership and again a few weeks later when Baku applied to upgrade its status within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from dialogue partner to observer, setting the stage to potentially become a full member.

Then on August 20, Azerbaijan said it had applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia that also includes Brazil, India, and South Africa as founding members.

For Azerbaijan, these moves should be seen within the context of Baku looking to capitalize on newfound interest in trade across Eurasia, where it sits at the center, and also its desire to hedge its foreign affairs by diversifying its ties with a variety of other countries. Russia and Turkey have been the traditional external players, along with the European Union, but China adds more room for Baku to use for balance.

The so-called Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect China to the European Union, has seen billions of dollars worth in investments and Azerbaijan is looking to attract more from China.

Baku is also looking to expand its ties with China in other areas, from further deals in green energy as Azerbaijan tries to plan for a future where it is less dependent on fossil-fuel exports to advanced technology and military purchases.

In addition to the Middle Corridor, Baku is also at the intersection of the International North–South Transport Corridor that flows south from Russia to Azerbaijan and then aims to connect to Iran and India.

"If Baku previously was able to use its energy resources [as leverage] in its relations with the West, international trade corridors are also now tools with strategic importance in Azerbaijan's foreign policy,” Nurlan Aliyev, a lecturer at the University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, told me.

3. 'I Never Saw Any Of Them Speak Out’

Public discussion around the experiences of ethnic Kazakhs in neighboring Xinjiang has become muted inside Kazakhstan after years of pressure on activists that has also led to relatives and survivors of the internment system afraid to share their stories.

My colleagues Asemgul Mukhitqyzy and Chris Rickleton spoke with a Kazakh journalist who recently tried to investigate the plight of ethnic Kazakhs in China.

What You Need To Know: Zhaqsylyq Qazymuratuly, the Kazakh journalist who works for the newspaper Zhas Alash, published an article in late July on what the outlet said were 22 members of the ethnic Kazakh intelligentsia currently languishing behind bars in China.

While Kazakhstan was once a hotbed of activism and public awareness when arrests first started taking place in Xinjiang, that largely tapered off following a crackdown on activist leaders.

In this respect, the recent article marks a noteworthy effort to restart the conversation in the country, but as Qazymuratuly told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, those who have been reunited with relatives in Kazakhstan in the past couple of years -- sometimes after a long separation -- are in no hurry to talk about their experiences.

Adding to that, the Kazakh-based relatives of the detainees that the article focused on are also increasingly reluctant to say anything about their cases.

“All of them refused to comment. The reason is obvious. Advocacy could worsen the situation for their relatives in detention,” Qazymuratuly said.

Across The Supercontinent

Lending Evolution: Amid accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” Chinese lending practices are often under the microscope. In Central Asia, however, Chinese financial players are adapting to use different lending models, Nargiza Muratalieva writes for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Scientists Targeted: The Uyghur rights organization Uyghur Hjelp has documented more than 200 cases of Uyghur scientists and other science professionals being imprisoned in China.

New Strategy: U.S. President Joe Biden has approved a new nuclear strategy to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea, according to reporting by The New York Times.

Coal In Kyrgyzstan: The Kyrgyz government will introduce new regulations meant to prevent coal prices from rising in the country, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reports.

The price controls will take effect for 90 days starting on September 15 and come amid a coal shortage that could spike prices. Kyrgyz authorities have said that they plan to increase coal mining in the country and also increase imports from neighboring China.

One Thing To Watch

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that 48,000 Chinese students are studying in Russia in the 2023-2024 academic year, an increase of almost 10,000 students compared to the previous year.

Golikova also said that more than 16,000 Russian students were studying in Chinese universities.

The rising figures are the fruits of multiple new agreements in recent years between Beijing and Moscow to increase the number of their students at each other’s universities at a time when the numbers of Chinese and Russian students studying in the United States is declining.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in 2019.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in 2019.

Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork to boost its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is looking to China for help.

In just two months, Baku's ties with Beijing have quickly moved forward as the oil-rich country has inched closer politically and economically through a series of agreements that could boost China's presence in the region and open the door to newfound Chinese investment into Azerbaijan.

The series of recent moves began on July 3 when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana and declared they had upgraded bilateral ties through a new strategic partnership that calls for them to work closer together economically, militarily, and politically.

A few weeks later, Baku applied to upgrade its status within the SCO from dialogue partner to observer, setting the stage to potentially become a full member.

And then on August 20, Azerbaijan announced it had applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia that also includes Brazil, India, and South Africa as founding members.

Taken together, the collection of moves is part of China's growing momentum in the region as an investor and trade partner since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has left governments and shipping companies looking for alternatives due to sanctions on Russia that have left its vast rail network -- previously the main route between China and Europe for overland trade -- less viable.

The Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect to the European Union, has seen a rise in use since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect to the European Union, has seen a rise in use since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For Azerbaijan, which is at a crossroads for trade on the Caspian Sea, this has led to new energy for the so-called Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect to the European Union, and seen new investment worth billions of dollars.

"The Middle Corridor is a key issue and Baku needs Beijing's support,” Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told RFE/RL. "The immediate concern is that the success of the Middle Corridor depends on a steady flow of goods from China to establish a strong China-Europe route in the long term.”

A Series Of New Deals And Beyond

Attracting more Chinese interest and investment in the Middle Corridor is a main priority for Azerbaijan and is at the center of the strategic partnership agreement signed in July.

China pledged in the document to help develop and use the trade route and Baku is hoping that it will lead to more Chinese investment in infrastructure, which would make the route more competitive and strengthen Azerbaijan's role as a central hub in the region.

But Baku's "cooperation menu with Beijing is extensive,” says Shiriyev, with Azerbaijan eyeing further deals in green energy, advanced technology, and military purchases.

The Azerbaijani government has also expressed a desire for Chinese companies to set up a regional manufacturing hub for electric vehicles in the country and has been actively calling for more Chinese investment.

Bilateral trade between the two countries is also on the rise, although heavily slanted in Beijing's favor, with China overtaking Turkey as Azerbaijan's second-largest source of imports (behind Russia) with $3.1 billion worth of goods in 2023, a 40 percent rise from the previous year.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization members, observer states, and dialogue partners on July 4 in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization members, observer states, and dialogue partners on July 4 in Astana, Kazakhstan.

"Chinese companies are already participating in the diversification of Azerbaijan's economy, but we expect more,” Hikmet Hajiyev, Aliyev's foreign policy adviser, told the Chinese state broadcaster CGTN during a March interview in Beijing.

Increased trade and investment appear to be motivating the recent moves by Baku as the country looks to diversify away from the hydrocarbon wealth that has underpinned its economy for decades.

Another part of the strategic partnership agreement calls for China's support for Azerbaijan's full membership in the World Trade Organization and the application for BRICS membership could also open new markets. While there is no clear procedure for admitting new members or an application timeline for joining BRICS, it expanded in January to also include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt -- and has a long list of other countries who have expressed an interest in applying.

"Membership could offer Baku the opportunity to expand access to the large and rapidly growing markets of the BRICS countries, potentially creating new opportunities for bilateral trade agreements and investments in Azerbaijan's economy,” Shiriyev said.

A New Balance Of Power

The appeal of closer ties with Beijing isn't limited to trade and investment, says Vadim Dubnov, a regional expert at RFE/RL's Echo of the Caucasus, who notes that China is also an increasingly important partner for Baku to lean on in the region's fast-changing geopolitical environment.

A decreasing footprint from Western powers combined with Russia being weakened and distracted by its war in Ukraine has given Azerbaijan more room to maneuver in foreign affairs. This has led to Baku deepening ties with Turkey and Iran and inviting China in to play a larger role.

"Aliyev is trying to reposition himself and find a new balance with all the major players in the South Caucasus,” said Dubnov. "Stronger ties with China allow Baku to not sit totally in any one camp.”

But the warming ties between Baku and Beijing are not a one-sided process.

Since Azerbaijan's success in its 2020 war with Armenia, China's interest in the South Caucasus has grown and Beijing hopes that Baku's stronger regional standing will lead to more stability and opportunities for more Chinese investment and influence in the region, such as additional trade routes connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey through Armenia.

The Baku International Sea Trade Port Complex. The port is a strategic location for both the Middle Corridor and the North-South trade route. (file photo)
The Baku International Sea Trade Port Complex. The port is a strategic location for both the Middle Corridor and the North-South trade route. (file photo)

Azerbaijan is also eyeing other opportunities to use its geographic position to its advantage.

While the Middle Corridor makes up an East-West trade route that bypasses Russia, the shake up to global trade brought by the war in Ukraine has also created new interest in other alternatives, including those that look to cut out the West.

As the Middle Corridor has grown, Moscow has looked to drum up investment in the International North–South Transport Corridor that flows south from Russia to Azerbaijan and then aims to connect to Iran and India.

China, which has strong trade ties with Central Asia and the EU as well as Russia and Iran, has expressed support for both the Middle Corridor and the North-South route, which Azerbaijan is looking to capitalize on given its central position in both.

"If Baku previously was able to use its energy resources [as leverage] in its relations with the West, international trade corridors are also now tools with strategic importance in Azerbaijan's foreign policy,” Nurlan Aliyev, a lecturer at the University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, told RFE/RL.

RFE/RL Armenian Service correspondent Lusine Musayelyan contributed reporting to this article.

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About The Newsletter

In recent years, it has become impossible to tell the biggest stories shaping Eurasia without considering China’s resurgent influence in local business, politics, security, and culture.

Subscribe to this weekly dispatch in which correspondent Reid Standish builds on the local reporting from RFE/RL’s journalists across Eurasia to give you unique insights into Beijing’s ambitions and challenges.

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