The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that detail a plot backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.

A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) instructed a contact to develop a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, the Justice Department said in a news release.

Three men, including an Iranian national, were charged in the criminal complaint in connection with their alleged involvement in a plot to murder a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin.

Two of the three men -- Carlisle Rivera, 49, and Jonathon Loadholt, 36, both of New York City -- made an initial appearance in court on November 7 and were ordered detained pending trial, the department said.

The third man, identified as Farjad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.

"The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders, and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran," FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the news release.

The IRGC "has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won't be tolerated," he added.

The Justice Department said Shakeri was an IRGC "asset" who immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for robbery.

Shakeri has since used a network of criminal associates he met in prison to supply the IRGC with operatives to conduct surveillance and assassinations of IRGC targets, the department said.

Loadholt and Rivera were allegedly members of Shakeri's network and at his instruction they spent months surveilling a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin residing in the United States.

The department didn't identify the target but said the individual was an outspoken critic of the Iranian regime, and Shakeri promised to pay $100,000 in a murder-for-hire plot.

The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations of U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, according to the press release.

"In particular, Shakeri has informed law enforcement that he was tasked on October 7, 2024, with providing a plan to kill President-elect Donald J. Trump," the Justice Department said.

Shakeri was unable to draft a plan within the time span requested by the IRGC official, and the official then told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him afterward, the criminal complaint said.

Shakeri, Rivera, and Loadholt have all been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; and money-laundering conspiracy, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.

Shakeri faces additional charges related to terrorism.

With reporting by AP

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.

In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”

During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.

The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.

During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.

Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.

The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.

“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”

Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.

“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.

What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.

But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.

What To Keep An Eye On

An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.

The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.

“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”

Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.

In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.

Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.

Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.

India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.

The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Before the U.S. presidential election, Iran dismissed the vote as irrelevant.

But former President Donald Trump’s stunning victory on November 5 could have major ramifications for Tehran, experts say.

During his first stint in power, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs and imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran.

Iran will “have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security…in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a [second] Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

'Maximum Pressure 2.0'

From 2017-2021, the Trump administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

Trump’s return to the White House could see a policy of “maximum pressure 2.0,” said Sabet, adding that the aim could be “containment and regime weakening.”

Sabet said Trump could try to devise “a kind of policy in perpetuity” on Iran that would be difficult to undo by future U.S. administrations.

In a sign of what is to come, Brian Hook, who oversaw the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, is expected to lead the president-elect’s transition team at the State Department. U.S. media reported that Hook could be considered for the role of secretary of state.

During the campaign, Trump sent mixed messages on Iran. He threatened to blow the country to “smithereens” but also said he was open to talks with Tehran. Trump also said he wants Iran to be “successful,” although he added that Tehran “can't have a nuclear weapon.”

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Sabet said Iran has grown more adept at evading U.S. sanctions since Trump’s first term and its nuclear program has become more advanced following the abrogation of the nuclear deal.

But experts say Iran will still feel the bite of tougher U.S. policies. The Iranian economy is in free fall, while the clerical establishment has faced growing domestic unrest and threats from archenemy Israel.

The Israeli Factor

Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks in recent months that have raised fears of an all-out regional war.

The tit-for-tat attacks have come as Israel fights a multifront war against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

SEE ALSO:

Israel's Attack On Iran Has Left Tehran Offensively And Defensively Weaker

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.

Trump has a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect.

During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of U.S. policy. He also moved the U.S. embassy to the contested city.

Sabet said Iran’s “security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S.”

The View From Iran

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump's election victory “makes no difference” to Tehran, which has “prioritized developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.”

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said Iran had “bitter experiences with various U.S. governments' past policies and approaches.” But he added that Trump’s return to the White House was a chance “to review previous wrong policies.”

Some conservative Iranian lawmakers and media outlets have done little to hide their disdain for Trump.

Hard-line lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X on November 6 before taking down his post. The conservative Hamshahri newspaper decried “the return of the murderer,” alluding to Trump’s role in Soleimani’s assassination.

Others have urged Iranian decision-makers to consider negotiating with Trump, especially as the reformist Pezeshkian pledged to engage the West when he took office in July.

Tehran-based political analyst Hamid Asefi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical establishment hope that Trump will help topple the Islamic republic. But he said that was “wishful thinking” because his Iran policy has never been about regime change.

“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran can easily strike a deal with Trump, as he is a dealmaker,” he added.

Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story.

Israel is sending chartered planes to Amsterdam to bring back Israeli soccer fans after they were attacked following a match on November 7 by what Mayor Femke Halsema described as "anti-Semitic hit-and-run squads."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called the incidents "anti-Semitic attacks," initially announced he was sending two planes to Amsterdam to evacuate the Israeli football fans, but his office later said that Israeli airlines El Al and Israir have set up special flights for free on November 8 and November 9 to do the job.

Amsterdam police said that 62 people were detained following the violence, with 10 still in custody on November 8 in connection with the clashes -- which left five people hospitalized -- in the center of Amsterdam between young locals and Israeli supporters who had come to watch Maccabi Tel Aviv's game against Ajax Amsterdam in the Europa League competition.

Dutch authorities said there was no concrete threat to Israeli soccer fans before the game and that it was not clear how or precisely when the violence began.

Peter Holla, the city's acting police chief, told a news conference that the Israeli fans were “willfully attacked."

Police said fans had left the stadium without incident after the game was won 5-0 by Ajax, but various clashes in the city center were reported during the night.

Earlier, a pro-Palestinian protest against Maccabi's visit scheduled to take place near the stadium was banned by Dutch authorities for security reasons amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

"This is a very dark moment for the city, for which I am deeply ashamed," Halsema told a news conference.

"Anti-Semitic criminals attacked and assaulted visitors to our city, in hit-and-run actions," Halsema said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks on the Israeli supporters as "vile" and said she discussed them with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.

"Outraged by last night's vile attacks targeting Israeli citizens in Amsterdam," von der Leyen said in a post on X. "I strongly condemn these unacceptable acts. Antisemitism has absolutely no place in Europe. And we are determined to fight all forms of hatred."

SEE ALSO:

Israel's Wars In Gaza And Lebanon Fray Relations With Europe

Anti-Israeli protests have been held in various parts of the world, including in Western Europe amid Israel's war in the Gaza Strip against Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the EU, following the group's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people.

The conflict has spilled outside of Gaza and into southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Schoof said he was "horrified" by the incidents. which he called "completely unacceptable." He said he told Netanyahu that those who are guilty would be "identified and prosecuted."

Netanyahu told Schoof that he "views the premeditated anti-Semitic attack against Israeli citizens with the utmost seriousness and requested increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands," the Israeli prime minister's office said.

Video posted online also purported to show Israeli fans chanting anti-Arab slogans in the streets ahead of the game.

Maccabi fans are known to have used similar chants in Israel at recent matches there.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he had talked to Dutch King Willem-Alexander on the phone, who had voiced "deep horror and shock over the criminal acts committed."

The Israeli Embassy in the United States said on X that "hundreds" of Maccabi fans were "ambushed and attacked in Amsterdam tonight as they left the stadium following a game against Ajax."

"The mob who targeted these innocent Israelis has proudly shared their violent acts on social media," the embassy said in its message accompanied by a video of violent clashes in the city.

Israel also said it had banned members of its military from traveling to the Netherlands.

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump made big promises about what would be in store if he reclaimed the White House.

"With your support, we'll bring back our nation's strength, dominance, prosperity and pride," Trump said two weeks before Election Day. "This will be America's new golden age."

Now that Trump has won a second term as president, what might be expected from his incoming administration?

The answer to that question depends a lot on who you ask. Trump's supporters believe he will "make America great again," at home and abroad. His detractors have warned that Trump will undermine democracy in the United States.

War And Peace

The way the United States exerts its influence around the world is likely to change.

Trump has said he could end Russia's war in Ukraine "in 24 hours." With Israel involved in a two-front war in the Middle East against Iranian-backed armed groups, Trump has called on Israel to "finish the job."

Peter Skerry, professor of political science at Boston College, said he expects Trump to "push for some sort of settlement" between Moscow and Kyiv that he predicted will "mean big concessions on the part of Ukraine."

What Trump will do regarding Israel is much less clear, Skerry says, but he said that "he'll be extremely supportive of Israel" while at the same time trying to revive the Abraham Accords that aim for Arab-Israeli normalization.

China, with which Trump launched a trade war during his first term in office, is a wild card. Trump has pledged to introduce more steep tariffs on products made in China if Beijing were to "go into Taiwan."

He has previously said he would not have to use U.S. military force to prevent a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan due to his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Global Footprint

In his four years as president, Trump pushed for NATO members to meet their required levels of defense spending, goals that most have since met.

Trump also oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the UN cultural body UNESCO, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, the Iran nuclear deal worked out with world powers, the Paris Agreement on mitigating the effects of climate change, and withheld funding for the World Health Organization due to its response to the coronavirus outbreak.

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The outgoing Biden administration made a point to restore U.S. influence in such agreements and institutions, but now many predict another reversal under Trump.

Skerry said Trump is a "single-minded, self-interested actor" who is focused on domestic issues. It would not be surprising to see Trump "get back on the track" of limiting Washington's role in some global institutions, he said.

Keith Naughton, co-founder of the U.S.-based public-affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies, said that "Trump will want to go it alone more." But he added that the U.S. Congress was unlikely "to go along" and will put up resistance.

Payback Time

Trump has frequently lashed out against his political adversaries, referring to them as the "enemy from within" and suggesting they could "very easily handled" by the military in the event of postelection chaos.

The comments led outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris, who ran and lost against Trump, to say just before the vote that Trump was "obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and out for unchecked power."

At home, the U.S. judicial system is one area where Trump is expected to clean house, in large part owing to multiple criminal cases related to his first term, including regarding alleged election interference and attempts to derail the transfer of power following his 2020 election loss.

Trump has also said that he would "absolutely" pardon his supporters imprisoned for their role in the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol in a failed attempt to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden's victory.

More broadly, many predict Trump will use "Project 2025" -- an initiative conceived by the right-wing Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington to "take down the deep state" -- as a template for his policies.

Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 during his campaign, claiming he did not know who was behind it, but investigations have found that at least 140 people who worked in the previous Trump administration are involved.

"Trump likes to talk tough, but rarely follows through," Naughton said. "Any retribution will be haphazard and from staff members. I think there will be a lot of changes at the Department of Justice."

Iranian religious scholar and civil activist Sedigheh Vasmaghi said there is no legal basis for admitting a young woman into psychiatric care because she took her clothes off in apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university.

"Even if someone suffers from mental health disorders, diagnosing that is not up to judicial authorities or the police, not to mention that admitting someone into a psychiatric facility should not be a punishment," Vasmaghi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda on November 5.

"Punishments need to be legal…. Whoever [admitted her] has committed an illegal act," said Vasmaghi, who lives in Iran.

Videos emerged on social media on November 2 showing a young woman stripped to her underwear and walking around outside a university in Tehran.

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The circumstances that led to her taking off her clothes remain unclear, but witnesses say she was harassed by the university's security officers over what she had been wearing. One video showed officers violently forcing the unidentified woman into a car.

Reports in Iranian media later alleged she was suffering from mental illness and that she was taken to a psychiatric hospital.

Rights groups have condemned her treatment and demanded her immediate release.

Amnesty International on November 3 said, "Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer."

The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights on November 4 decried what it described as the Islamic republic's use of "psychiatric hospitals as tools of repression to delegitimize acts of protest and silence dissenting voices."

Echoing the same sentiment, Vasmaghi said Iranian authorities had a track record of sending protesters to psychiatric wards to "belittle and punish" them.

"Women have made their decision and they will not retreat" from demanding the freedom to choose how to dress, the activist said.

"The authorities must accept that and stop doing things that increase tensions in society," she added.

Written by Kian Sharifi based on an interview by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Iran's judiciary says three people have been sentenced to death by a lower court over the killing in 2020 of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in what Tehran says was an Israeli-orchestrated operation.

"The sentencing of these three people was carried out in the Revolutionary Court of Urmia, and they were sentenced to death in the initial stage, and the case is currently in the appeal stage," Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for Iran's judiciary, said at a news conference in Tehran.

Urmia is a town In Iran's northwestern province of West Azerbaijan close to the border with Turkey.

The sentencing of the three, who have not been named, comes at a time of rising tensions between Iran and Israel amid the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

SEE ALSO:

How Will The U.S. Election Impact Washington's Iran Policy?

Israel has been blamed for the assassination of at least four other Iranian nuclear scientists suspected of working on Tehran's military nuclear program.

Fakhrizadeh, known as the father of the Islamic republic's nuclear program, had been under U.S. sanctions for his role in Iran's nuclear research and Israel accused him in 2018 of being the architect of Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.

"After some investigations, three out of eight people arrested in West Azerbaijan province were accused of spying for the occupying regime of Israel," Jahangir said, adding that the case is now in the "appeal stage."

The three were also accused of bringing unspecified equipment from abroad into Iran for the attack "under the guise of smuggling alcoholic drinks."

Jahangir said the case against the other defendants is still ongoing.

Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in a brazen ambush of his vehicle in the town of Absard, near Tehran on November 27, 2020, which Iran at the time blamed on Israel while suggesting the United States also had an indirect or direct role.

The circumstances of the attack remain unclear. Initial reports immediately after the killing suggested Fakhrizadeh was targeted by a truckful of explosives, several gunmen, and a suicide attacker.

Just days later, the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) offered a different account, saying a machine gun equipped with a "satellite-controlled smart system" that employed "artificial intelligence" was used in the pinpointed killing of the scientist that left his wife, who was traveling with him, unharmed.

Israel has not commented on Fakhrizadeh's killing.

Iran's judiciary says a dual German-Iranian national sentenced to death on terror charges died while in prison and was not executed, as previously reported by local media.

Reports from state media that Jamshid Sharmahd was executed surfaced on October 28, sparking a diplomatic row with Berlin that saw Germany shut all three of Iran's consulates in the European nation.

However, Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for the judiciary, contradicted the reports on November 5, saying a judicial statement on the issue was misquoted as it did not specifically say the death sentence had been carried out. No details on Sharmahd's death were given.

"There was no deadline for the execution of Sharmahd's sentence, he died before the execution of the death sentence," Asghar Jahangir said.

Sharmahd, 69, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.

He was in Dubai and heading to India for a business trip when he went missing for several days before Tehran announced it had taken Sharmahd into custody and brought back to Iran.

Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.

Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd, who lived in Glendora, California, of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."

In reaction to the reports of Sharmahd's execution, the European Union put out a statement "strongly" condemning the punishment and accusing Iran of having "illegally" abducting the software engineer, holding him for years "under inhumane conditions without a fair trial."

Western governments and rights groups have long accused Iran of detaining dual citizens to use them as bargaining chips against the West.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has arrived in Islamabad at the start of a two-day official visit during which he will hold talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and other officials, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry announced on November 5. Araghchi and the Pakistani officials will discuss improving bilateral ties and the current crisis in the Middle East, the Ministry said in a statement. The visit also "provides an important opportunity to advance cooperation and dialogue between Pakistan and Iran on a wide range of areas including trade, energy and security," the statement said. Iran and Israel are currently engaged in a standoff, with Tehran threatening to launch another retaliatory strike in response to an Israeli attack on October 26 that targeted Iranian military facilities. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal, click here.

Iran, at a time of rising tensions with Israel, has executed a Jewish man who was convicted of murder, a charge his family rejected saying he acted in self- defense after being attacked.

The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, quoted Hamidreza Karimi, the prosecutor of the western Iranian city of Kermanshah, as saying Arvin Ghahremani, 23, was executed on November 4.

Ghahremani, 18 at the time, was found guilty of stabbing another man to death in 2022 outside a gym in Kermanshah. The victim had owed money to Ghahremani and, according to his family, an altercation broke out over the dispute.

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Germany Condemns Iran's 'Inhumane Regime' After Execution Of Iranian-German National

The victim was armed and Ghahremani acted in self-defense, they said, saying he even tried to help keep the victim alive after the altercation.

After being sentenced to death, Ghahrmani's lawyers failed to get the family of the Muslim victim, whose identity was not revealed, to pardon him and spare his life.

Islamic legislation provides for qisas, or equivalent punishment, in murder cases.

However, rights groups have long said that the law discriminates against non-Muslims, who often receive harsher punishments than Muslims convicted of similar offenses.

Ghahremani's lawyers had requested a retrial three different times, but each motion was rejected by Iranian courts.

The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group condemned the execution of Ghahremani, who the group said was 20 years old, not 23.

The group also disputed Ghahremani's guilt, saying he had been attacked with a knife by the victim. It also said that the victim's family initially agreed to spare Ghahremani but changed their mind after finding out he was Jewish.

"Arvin was a Jew, and the institutionalized anti-Semitism in the Islamic republic undoubtedly played a crucial role in the implementation of his sentence," IHR Director Mahmood Amiri-Moghadam said in a statement, adding that the case had "significant flaws."

Jews are a small minority estimated at some 20,000 in Iran, a mainly Shi'ite Muslim nation of nearly 92 million people. Many Jews fled Iran in the aftermath of Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 as the new regime adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist.

Israel and Iran's proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip have been fighting a war over the past year since one of the groups, Hamas, invaded Israel and killed some 1,200 people in an unprovoked attack.

The group, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, also took around 240 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.

The U.S. presidential election on November 5 will probably have a major bearing on Washington’s policy toward Iran.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is likely to continue President Joe Biden’s diplomacy-focused policies, experts say.

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” during his first stint in office and is more likely to embrace a hawkish position, analysts say.

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Harris's Calculated Toughness?

In early October, Harris raised eyebrows when she described Iran as Washington’s “greatest adversary” ahead of Russia and China.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said her comments should not be taken at face value. Harris said “what she had to say” for the sake of domestic U.S. policies and to appease the pro-Israel lobby.

Harris’s campaign wants to “position her somewhat to Trump’s right on issues like Iran,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

“Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach, pursuing diplomacy without offering large concessions and remaining wary of doing too much and triggering domestic political backlash,” Brew said.

SEE ALSO:

U.S. Says Iran Nuclear Deal Remains 'Off The Table' As Tehran Calls For 'New Negotiations'

Experts say the conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is engaged in a war with Iran-backed armed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, could lead to Harris devising a more aggressive policy toward Tehran.

Diplomacy with Tehran will remain an option under a Harris presidency, experts say, but any negotiations would likely be centered on regional affairs rather than Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump To Opt For Dialogue Or Detachment?

During his stint in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.

But it is unclear if Trump would adopt a hawkish policy toward Iran if reelected, experts say, noting the former president’s unpredictability.

During the campaign, Trump suggested without evidence that Iran was involved in recent attempted assassinations against him and threatened to blow the country “to smithereens.”

But Trump has also said on the campaign trail that he is open to talks with Iran, including over the nuclear deal.

Under a Trump presidency, there would likely be less scope for or interest in diplomacy with Tehran, said Brew.

SEE ALSO:

Iran Talks A Big Talk, But Could It Target Trump On U.S. Soil?

Brew said there is “a greater willingness to tolerate military action against Iran” among Republicans, particularly in the wake of Israel’s first overt attack on Iran on October 26. But the odds of the United States getting involved in a war with Iran remain low.

“It's difficult for me to see a large war being planned at this moment in American history by any American president,” Vatanka said.

Vatanka said Iran could be more willing to talk to Trump because it may “find it easier to deal” with the former president and entice him “by appealing to his ego.”

Overall, American policy toward Iran would be more reflective of “mainstream American thinking and institutional decision-making consensus” under Harris, Vatanka said, whereas under Trump it would be “more of the inkling and the gut feeling of one man.”

Amnesty International has called for the immediate release of a young woman who took most of her clothes off during an apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university on November 2.

Iranian authorities arrested the female student -- who has not been identified -- after she stripped to her underwear on the street outside the university.

Video footage was first posted by an Iranian student channel, the Amir Kabir newsletter, and then later by the Hengaw rights group, Amnesty International, and others.

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“Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer." Amnesty said.

"Allegations of beatings & sexual violence against her during arrest need independent & impartial investigations," it added. "Those responsible must held to account.”

To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

The United States says it is gathering information about the case of former Radio Farda journalist Reza Valizadeh, a dual citizen, who has been in prison in Iran for the past weeks.

Valizadeh was arrested in late September in Tehran, a source close to the family told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda last month. Valizadeh left his job as a staff member at Radio Farda in November 2022.

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In his last post on X on August 13, Valizadeh said he had traveled to Tehran on March 16. He also said he had “unfinished negotiations” with the intelligence branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). It is not clear under what circumstances he wrote this post.

“We are working with our Swiss partners who serve as the protecting power for the United States in Iran to gather more information about this case,” the State Department told AP. “Iran routinely imprisons U.S. citizens and other countries’ citizens unjustly for political purposes. This practice is cruel and contrary to international law.”

RFE/RL said in a statement that it was aware of Valizadeh’s detention in Iran. “We have had no official confirmation of the charges against him, “the statement said, adding: “We are profoundly concerned about the continued arrest, harassment and threats against media professionals by the Iranian regime.”

Iranian officials have not publicly commented on Valizadeh’s arrest.

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Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.

Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.

Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176 out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said that if a cease-fire were reached by Israel and Tehran-allied groups in the region, the action "could affect the intensity" of any retaliatory strike by Iran’s military, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained his tough stance during a visit to the Lebanese border on November 3, saying the Hezbollah extremist group must be pushed back beyond the Litani River and be prevented from rearming.

Israel for the past several months has been striking suspected sites of Hezbollah -- which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.

Much of Hezbollah’s leadership has been killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and around the capital, Beirut.

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The attacks on Hezbollah have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed around than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU.

Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it will continue its attacks until a cease-fire is reached in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks inside Lebanon have killed nearly 3,000 people, according to officials there, and have destroyed much of Gaza, with a reported death toll of 43,341.

Many leaders in the West and elsewhere have feared a wider war erupting in the Middle East, especially with Israel and Iran trading tit-for-tat air strikes against each other. Many are awaiting Tehran’s next move following Israel’s October 26 strike against military sites inside Iran.

"If they [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a cease-fire, and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response," Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by the IRNA state news agency.

But he added that Tehran "will not leave unanswered any aggression against its sovereignty and security."

Pezeshkian, who took office in late July, has been labeled a moderate by some Western observers of the Iranian political situation.

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A day earlier, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened Israel and the United States with “a teeth-shattering response” to recent Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups – which it referred to as its “resistance front” -- in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu said that "I want to be clear: With or without [a cease-fire] agreement, the key to restoring peace and security in the north, the key to bringing our northern residents back home safely, is first and foremost to push Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River, secondly to target any attempt to rearm, and thirdly to respond firmly to any action taken against us."

Israel "will definitely do everything that should be done…whether in terms of military, weapons, or political work," he said.

The Litani River is some 30 kilometers inside Lebanon from the border and would create a buffer zone between Hezbollah forces and Israeli territory, which Netanyahu has insisted upon.

In a report by Axios on November 2, a U.S. official and a former Israeli official said the U.S. administration had warned Tehran in recent days that it won’t be able to restrain Israel should Iran launch another attack against the U.S. ally.

With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP

The U.S. administration has warned Tehran in recent days that it won’t be able to restrain Israel should Iran launch another attack against the U.S. ally, Axios reported on November 2, citing a U.S. official and a former Israeli official briefed on the matter. After Iran attacked Israel on October 1, in response to a string of Israeli assassinations of Iran-linked figures in the Middle East, the Israelis responded by striking military targets in Iran, although they did not hit nuclear or oil production sites as some people had feared. “We told the Iranians: We won't be able to hold Israel back, and we won't be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one," the unidentified U.S. official said, according to Axios.

Iran's supreme leader has threatened Israel and the United States with “a teeth-shattering response” to recent Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups – which it referred to as its “resistance front” -- in the Middle East. In a speech on November 2 to mark the 45th anniversary of the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: "We will definitely do everything that should be done…whether in terms of military, weapons, or political work," adding that "the authorities are already doing it." An Israeli air attack on October 26, which targeted military bases and other sites, killed at least five people, according to Iranian officials. Israel said the attacks were in response to a massive Iranian missile and drone attack against Israel on October 1. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East, a Pentagon statement said on November 1.

The forces will begin to arrive in the region in the coming months to replace the departing USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said in the statement.

The announcement comes three weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said he had ordered the Pentagon to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and troops to Israel as part of U.S. efforts to defend its ally and build up positions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“These movements demonstrate the flexible nature of U.S. global defense posture and U.S. capability to deploy worldwide on short notice to meet evolving national security threats,” Ryder said in the statement.

It added that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people.”

The long-range nuclear-capable B-52 bomber has been repeatedly deployed to the Middle East in pointed warnings to Iran. The action announced on November 1 is the second time this month that strategic U.S. bombers will be used to bolster U.S. defenses in the region.

Ryder did not provide the specific number of aircraft and ships that will be moved.

He said the movements were in keeping with U.S. commitments to the protection of U.S. citizens and U.S. forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy.

The moves come as Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas and the war in Lebanon against Hezbollah rage. Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing, and not the political party.

The United States is pressing for cease-fires, while repeatedly saying it will defend Israel and continue to protect the American and allied presence in the region.

With reporting by AP

Iran was quick to downplay the impact of Israel's attack on key military sites on its territory on October 26.

But satellite images suggest Israel has degraded Tehran's air-defense and missile-production capabilities, analysts say.

Fabian Hinz of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Israel had dealt a "significant blow" to Iran's ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.

Ability To Sustain Long-Range Attacks

On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever direct attack on Israel, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at its archenemy. Dozens of the missiles, aimed mostly at military sites, penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses.

Israel's retaliatory strikes on October 26 were aimed at hindering Iran's production of solid-propellant ballistic missiles that were used by Tehran in its assault, the "weapons that are of most concern to Israel," Hinz said.

Solid-propellant missiles require fewer personnel and little time to prepare for launch compared to liquid-propellant missiles, Hinz explains, making them ideal for launching volleys in quick succession.

Israel struck missile-production sites around Tehran, including the Parchin military complex, the Khojir military base, the Shahrud missile site, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.

Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes, says the full extent of the damage caused to the facilities is still unclear.

But he adds that Israel likely wanted to prevent Iran from being able to sustain long-range missile exchanges, especially given the numbers it needs to penetrate Israel's formidable air defenses.

"The Israelis probably don't know precisely how many ballistic missiles [Iran] has with the requisite range, but have tried to reduce its ability to replenish is stockpile," Binnie said.

Blinded Offensively And Defensively?

Israel's attack was also aimed at weakening Iran's ability to fend off aerial attacks by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems.

There have been unconfirmed reports quoting U.S. and Israeli officials claiming that three S-300 systems were taken out in the Israeli attack.

"The S-300s are Iran's most capable air-defense capabilities, so targeting them again emphasizes Iran's inability to defend itself and gives the Israeli Air Force more freedom of operation in the future," Binnie said.

Satellite images also showed that at least two radar systems -- one in the western Ilam Province and another in the southwestern Khuzestan Province -- were hit.

The radars are an essential part of Iran's early warning system, Hinz told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Taking them out, he said, would mean Israel had "degraded Iran's ability to resist any air attack even further, making it more vulnerable."

Fox News quoted a U.S. defense official as saying that the radars also had an offensive purpose, and have been used by Iran to track ballistic missiles after launch to assess their trajectories and course-correct if necessary.

Binnie said that "would be unusual but might explain how [Iran] has achieved a fairly high level of accuracy with its ballistic missiles -- though not good enough to do really significant damage."

Impact On Iranian Retaliation

There are growing numbers of reports that Tehran is considering retaliating against Israel as the extent of the damage caused by the October 26 attack becomes clearer.

Given that Iran has suffered damage to both its offensive and defensive capabilities, it is unclear if it can launch another large-scale attack on Israel, experts say.

Binnie said the United States' deployment to Israel of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-missile system, will further "swing the balance in [Israel's] favor."

Media reports citing Israeli sources say that Iran is preparing to launch an aerial attack on Israel using Tehran-backed Shi'ite militant groups in Iraq. That would suggest the Islamic republic hopes its proxies will absorb the brunt of a potential Israeli response.

Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report

Germany will shut all three Iranian consulates in Germany in reaction to the execution of dual German-Iranian citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on October 31.

"We have repeatedly made it clear that the execution of a German citizen will have serious consequences," Baerbock said in New York. "I have therefore decided to close the three Iranian consulates-general in Frankfurt am Main, Munich, and Hamburg."

Baerbock added that relations with Iran have reached “more than a low point” following the execution of Sharmahd, which was announced by Tehran on October 28.

Germany had already recalled its ambassador for consultations and summoned the Iranian charge d'affaires to voice Berlin's protest.

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Baerbock said the execution of Sharmahd shows the Iranian "regime of injustice" continues to act brutally.

The 32 employees at the three consulates must leave the country unless they have German citizenship. The embassy in Berlin is not affected by the order.

Iran summoned Germany's charge d'affaires in Tehran to protest Germany's "unjust" decision, state media reported on October 31.

Iranian state media said Sharmahd was put to death after he was convicted of carrying out terrorist attacks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that having a German passport does not give anyone immunity.

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz joined Baerbock in strongly condemning the execution of Sharmahd, calling it a "scandal" for the Iranian government.

Deputy Special Envoy Abram Paley of the U.S. Office of the Special Envoy for Iran welcomed Germany’s decision to close the three Iranian consulates.

“We stand united with the international community in holding the regime accountable,” he said on X, calling the execution of Sharmahd “unjust.”

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also strongly condemned the execution of Sharmahd and said the European Union is considering taking measures in response.

Sharmahd, 69, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.

Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.

Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."

With reporting by dpa and Reuters

Naim Qassem, the new leader of the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, vowed on October 30 to continue to implement the war plan set by his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, amid reports that Israel was again striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

In his first speech since being named earlier this week to replace Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27, Qassem said Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, "must not stop and watch...despite the pain."

In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group.

Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed around than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

Qassem, who has close ties with Iran and whom Washington declared a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018, gave no details on how he will continue the war against Israel and admitted Israel's strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon have been a "big blow."

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Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, Qassem is often credited with leading the organization’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.

Analysts have been watching to see if the appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.

Hezbollah controls much of southern Lebanon and its political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

More than 19 months after Iranians were barred from buying the latest iPhone models, authorities announced on October 30 that the ban was being lifted.

"The details and regulations related to the import of the iPhone will be announced in the nearest future," Telecommunications Minister Satar Hashemi said in a post on X.

He gave no further details but said the move was "supported" by President Masud Pezeshkian.

The ban -- aimed at limiting foreign currency spending as the country reels from crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear program -- was put in place in February 2023, outlawing the sale or import of the 14 and 15 series iPhones.

It didn't apply to iPhone 13 models and lower, creating a massive black market in a country where having an Apple-brand device is seen as a status symbol. Before the ban, analyst estimates showed around 1-in-3 smartphones were iPhones.

The U.S. tech giant itself doesn't have an official presence in Iran as it is barred from doing business in the country due to U.S. sanctions.

A landmark deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers in 2015 restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.

However, Iran expanded its program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

Tehran and Washington have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, when U.S. President Jimmy Carter broke off ties amid the Iran hostage crisis.

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah on October 28 named Naim Qassem as its new secretary-general, picking him from what was a seemingly small field of candidates.

Qassem, who had served as Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, takes over from longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27.

Nasrallah’s expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later, leaving the group with little choice but to pick Qassem.

Hezbollah -- which also has a political party represented in Lebanon’s parliament -- is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

Qassem is often credited with leading Hezbollah’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.

The appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.

Born in 1953 in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila, Qassem joined Hezbollah in the early years of its formation in the 1980s. While not a founding member, he rose through the ranks quickly and was named deputy secretary-general to Abbas al-Musawi, the then-chief of Hezbollah and one of its founders.

Following Musawi’s death in an Israeli operation a year after he received the appointment, Nasrallah was named Hezbollah’s new boss and Qassem retained his position.

Like Nasrallah, Qassem has very close ties with Tehran. Unlike his predecessor, however, his trips to Iran have not been covert. He has frequently been photographed with Iranian officials and traveled to Tehran in July to attend the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian.

The United States labeled Qassem a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018 and later sanctioned him as part of a wider crackdown on Hezbollah’s financial network.

Leading the group’s political efforts, Qassem has been heavily involved in organizing Hezbollah’s political campaigns since it began participating in parliamentary elections in 1992.

Qassem has been crucial in framing Hezbollah’s ideological and religious stance. He published a book in 2005, Hezbollah: The Story From Within, which sought to offer an insider’s look into the group’s inception and stated goals, including fighting Israel.

Hezbollah has suffered significant setbacks in recent months as Israel continues to degrade its military capabilities and decapitate its leadership. Qassem is effectively the only remaining Hezbollah figure with any name recognition beyond Lebanon’s borders.

While Hezbollah’s decision-making Shura Council was not spoiled for choice in picking Nasrallah’s successor, the appointment of Qassem may also signal the group’s willingness to end the conflict with Israel.

“Rather than electing a primarily military figure, in choosing Naim Qassem Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the end of the ongoing war with Israel,” Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, wrote on X.

“Hezbollah needs an experienced political interlocutor at the helm in anticipation of political negotiations with its opponents,” she added.

But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wasted little time in dispelling the possibility of diplomacy with the Iran-backed group, writing on X about Qassem’s promotion: “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”