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The June 1 resignation of Aleksandr Ankvab as de facto president of Georgia’s breakaway Republic of Abkhazia has resolved one major domestic political standoff. But there is little likelihood that the run-up to the preterm presidential ballot scheduled for August 24 will be smooth, and its outcome is currently impossible to predict.

One of the demands put to Ankvab in late April by the Coordinating Council of 11 opposition parties established last year was the passage of constitutional amendments that would transfer to the parliament and prime minister some of the powers currently invested in the president. This is now impossible, however, because the acting president is not empowered by the Abkhaz Constitution to initiate such amendments. It will therefore be up to whoever wins the August ballot to initiate those amendments, after which he risks playing second fiddle to whichever of his supporters he has appointed as prime minister.

That constitutional conundrum may partly explain why none of Abkhazia’s most influential political figures has yet expressed the intention of putting forward his presidential candidacy. Ankvab’s longtime rival, Forum of National Unity of Abkhazia Chairman Raul Khajimba, who played a leading role in the events of the past week that culminated in Ankvab’s resignation, has said that at present he has no intention of running. Khajimba placed second to incumbent Sergei Bagapsh in the December 2009 presidential ballot and third in the August 2011 election necessitated by Bagapsh’s untimely death in May 2011. On the first occasion, he garnered 15.4 percent of the vote; on the second, 19.83 percent.

Valery Bganba, the agronomist and former parliament speaker whom lawmakers chose on May 31 as acting president, has similarly made clear he will not run. Bganba placed last of five candidates in the December 2009 presidential ballot with just 1.5 percent of the vote.

Other possible candidates are former longtime Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba, who served during Bagapsh’s second term as premier and who placed a distant second to Ankvab in the August 2011 ballot; wealthy businessman Beslan Butba, who heads the Party of Economic Development of Abkhazia; and Vitaly Gabnia, chairman of the organization Aruaa representing veterans of the 1992-93 war that ended in Georgia's loss of control over Abkhazia.

The second potentially destabilizing factor is tactical disagreements within the opposition as a whole, which brings together "young idealists and bureaucrats from the previous government," and specifically the 21-member Provisional Council of Popular Trust set up last week and headed by Khajimba. Writing for the website kavpolit.com, Anton Krivenyuk does not rule out the emergence within the Coordinating Council of new rival power groupings.

-- Liz Fuller
Aleksandr Ankvab
Aleksandr Ankvab
Aleksandr Ankvab issued a statement today announcing his decision to step down as de facto president of Georgia’s breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, just five days after opposition supporters forced their way into the presidential administration building calling for his resignation.

Ankvab explained his decision to do so in terms of the overriding necessity to avoid precipitating a confrontation that could endanger the region’s hard-won statehood. As he has done consistently since the crisis began, he stressed that the opposition is acting in violation of the constitution. He nonetheless appealed to his supporters not to take any violent action, and not to go ahead with the planned pan-national gathering the political party Amtsakhara, which supports him, has planned for June 2.

Without naming names, Ankvab accused the opposition of having no interest in trying to reach a negotiated agreement with him. He said that while their primary interest is in seizing power and sharing out ministerial posts, “this is only the tip of the iceberg.” He accused them of lacking any interest in implementing reforms. Constitutional amendments that would transfer some of the presidential powers to the parliament and prime minister figured in a list of demands the 11 opposition parties aligned in the Coordinating Council put to Ankvab in late April.

Ankvab added that he is convinced the opposition receives support from those forces, which he declined to name, that were behind the attempts in recent years on his life, and that one of the objectives of the coup mounted against him was to secure the release from prison of the men currently on trial for those repeated assassination attempts.

It is not clear whether Ankvab met as planned on June 1 with former parliament speaker Valery Bganba, whom lawmakers had designated acting president the previous day. Likewise unclear is whether Ankvab is still at the Russian military base in Gudauta where he took refuge after fleeing Sukhumi during the night of May 27-28.

Even though Ankvab cited as the motive for his resignation the need to preserve calm and stability, he may have been left with no other course of action after both Moscow and the region’s power agencies withdrew their support. Aleksei Chesnakov, an advisor to Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov who flew to Sukhumi on May 28 to mediate between the two sides, pointedly declined to refer to Ankvab as president in a statement earlier on June 1, referring to him as “Mr.”

Unofficial reports say the “power ministers” met with Bganba after the parliament named him acting president and pledged their support.

-- Liz Fuller

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About This Blog

This blog presents analyst Liz Fuller's personal take on events in the region, following on from her work in the "RFE/RL Caucasus Report." It also aims, to borrow a metaphor from Tom de Waal, to act as a smoke detector, focusing attention on potential conflict situations and crises throughout the region. The views are the author's own and do not represent those of RFE/RL.

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